1st draft of resolution - please comment

Submitted by Emily on February 20, 2006 - 8:33pm.

The primary result of our 2/17 meeting with Saltzman was that he encouraged us to write a resolution creating a peak oil task force (as our petition states) that he could present to Council. A number of us in the Policy group held a meeting on Saturday afternoon where we drew up points that Dave and Pam later drafted into the following. Please add your comments as soon as you can.

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DRAFT RESOLUTION FOR THE CITY OF PORTLAND

Whereas, the global supplies of oil and natural gas are finite, global demand for these resources is rising and substitutes will not be available in the foreseeable future, supply and demand dictate that the price of oil and natural gas will rise at an increasing rate and that prices will become more volatile; and

Whereas, U.S. oil production has peaked, ensuring continued and growing dependence on oil and natural gas imported from politically unstable regions, and a growing body of professional opinion in the energy industries believes that the world has already arrived or will soon arrive at the peak of global oil production; and

Whereas, a reported commissioned by the United States Department of Energy has concluded that a minimum of 20 years of diligent preparation before the global oil peak is reached will be required in order to prevent severe economic problems [CHECK WORDING WITH ACTUAL REPORT]; and

Whereas, the City of Portland and its citizens and businesses are extremely dependent on oil and natural gas for their economic welfare and their most critical activities, including transportation and food production; and

Whereas the economic, political, and social implications of declining energy resources are not generally understood, and are likely to have dramatic effects upon every aspect of the lives of the citizens of Portland; and

Whereas the citizenry of Portland is not currently aware of the full implications and effects of reduced availability of affordably-priced oil and natural gas and will greatly benefit from an objective source of information on this topic; and

Whereas, the City of Portland has adopted the Local Action Plan On Global Warming whose accomplishment is highly dependent on reducing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases created by human use of oil and natural gas; and

Whereas the City of Portland has a national reputation for planning and actions aimed at maintaining the City’s social values, equity, and quality of life and can take a leadership role in what may become one of the greatest political economic and societal issues of the next half century,

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, a Peak Oil Task Force will be created which will include up to 12 members with the following representation: at least five community members well versed in the subject who do not have a direct business or financial interest in the outcome [SUGGESTIONS FOR OTHER 7?].

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, the Task Force’s charge will be:

a. To develop a comprehensive 5, 10, and 20 year plan for recommendation to City Council on the strategies that the City and its bureaus can take to mitigate the impacts of declining energy supplies in areas including, but not limited to: water, food security, essential transportation, essential health care, non-grid dependent communications within the city.
b. To develop an emergency plan to provide basic life sustaining needs to the citizens of Portland in the event of a sudden and dramatic increase in the price of oil or the sudden loss of supplies.
c. To seek community and industry input on the impacts and proposed solutions.
d. To propose methods of educating the public about this issue without causing undue alarm.

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that since the implications of declining energy resources are also a regional concern, the Task Force is instructed to consider the input of regional and state planners on this issue and cooperate with any similar task forces created at the county, regional and state levels. In addition the Task Force will cooperate with other similar councils such as the Portland/Multnomah County Food Policy Council, and OTHER SUGGESTIONS???

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that city bureaus are instructed to cooperate with the Task Force as it seeks information needed to complete its charge.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

THE FOLLOWING TWO WERE LEFT OUT BECAUSE WE DON’T HAVE THE FACTS. IF YOU THINK THESE ARE IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SAY SO AND WE CAN TRY TO GET THE INFORMATION. OTHERWISE WE CAN JUST LEAVE THEM OUT.

Whereas 80% of Portland’s gasoline supplies arrive via barge on the Columbia river [FACT CHECK!] and 100% of the natural gas arrives via two pipelines from Canada [FACT CHECK!] exposing these critical supplies to interruption due to natural disasters and acts of terrorism, and

Whereas local storage capacity of these critical fuel supplies is less than XX days/weeks, and preparations for increasing this storage capacity will take many years and the economic and human consequences of even short-term supply interruptions will be severe

‹ PPO's final draft of resolution How to Post ›

great job

Submitted by localize it on February 21, 2006 - 12:16am.

This looks very solid.

A few suggestions:

1st Stanza - consider adding the word "adequate" or "sufficient" preceeding the word "substitutes"

Task Force Membership:
*Is it appropriate to include a city employee from Offc. of Sustainable Development? I think that would be beneficial.

*Perhaps someone from the Port of Portland would be helpful?

*How about someone to represent a CSA or other locally based agriculture operation

*Someone perhaps in an Interfaith capacity (I'm thinking about outreach and education)

*A few scholars - economist, sociologist, planner

Can we set a timetable for appointments and service length - what about compensation for members - do we need to deal with that kind of stuff?

Again, many Kudos to all who worked on this.

Task Force Membership

Submitted by Pam Leitch on February 21, 2006 - 11:54am.

Staff from OSD will be assigned to help the taks force, but I think that staff is not directly on the task force. We will get input from Slatzman's staff as to service length and such other time lines.

Pam
Land Steward
Portland Permaculture Institute
A Post Carbon Outpost

very nice

Submitted by Jeremy on February 21, 2006 - 11:35am.

Well done, from my first reading it seems very well done. All of the whereas statements appear to be fairly "bullet proof", but I need a litt e more time to think about who should be on the task force and the specific points the task force should address.

Jeremy O'Leary, Working to suport my biology habit.

Great Job

Submitted by dmd on February 22, 2006 - 1:05pm.

Will read closer when I get closer to glasses :-)
But it reads great already. The be it resolved's is where the real action occurs. It might be nice to throw some human characteristics in here that will insure that the poor don't get dropped off. Projects like 'Dignity Village' are an incredible first step into upcoming homelessness. Sister's of the Road into hunger.
--m

Nice work group

Submitted by rowan on February 22, 2006 - 7:51pm.

I am overall impressed with what has been done here. I would make some recommendations.

1. I would include the two issues that need fact checking.

2. There needs to be a request for and agency or office of Portland Government tasked and funded with pursuing the issues and working with the citizens' committee. There also needs to be funding for staff support for this group.

   2a. The commission needs to fall under someone's official province.
 

   2b. The reason for pushing for this is that the group needs to be strongly linked into the mechanisms of government or it runs the risk of being just for show. Ultimately, one would hope that an arm of local government would be tasked with this area.

3. One thing that is not recognized is marginalized and vulnerable populations. These communities are likely to hit a crisis well before the "average" citizen does. Even a modest rise in costs will have magnified impacts on these groups.

  3a. There needs to be a strengthening of the social safety net for disadvantaged groups. This includes preparations for emergency services and supplies - oil related and not, and for informing diverse populations of the issues and resources.

  3b. There needs to be legal action taken that stop the cut off of critical utilities to those who cannot pay during life threatening situations. Namely, power, gas, and water should not be cut off when either heat or cold would be a threat to health or life.

 
4. Some variant of "new urbanism" is likely to be suggested. It is critical that existing residents not be dislocated in such development.

5. Urban agriculture needs to be protected from development encroachment. Perhaps a bit more emphasis on food supply issues.

6. The recommended commission should be racially and economically diverse. Consideration of connection to groups already working in communities (i.e. Urban League, Ecumenical Ministries, Food Bank, etc) should be considered.

7. Access or connection to other likely city and county government would be a good idea - emergency response, sustainability office come immediately to mind.

 

That's all I can think of at the moment.

 

Thanks for all your work in planning and meeting with Saltzman.

 

Rowan

 

 

1st draft of resolution -

Submitted by dmd on February 23, 2006 - 9:06am.

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, a Peak Oil Task Force will be created which will include up to 12 members with the following representation: at least seven [CHANGE from five] community members well versed in the subject who do not have a direct business or financial interest in the outcome
{Suggestion: dmd
[ADDtoEnd]:
Being well-versed must represent expertise and technical/working knowledge in at least (1) of the following viewpoints:
- local-community food production (tied into waste management)
- local-community waste-management (reduce, recycle, restore)
- local-community medical treatment (tied into all)
- local-community housing management (think dry sleep )
- local-community labor management (go with the need, think CCC)

"well-versed"

Submitted by scotty on February 23, 2006 - 5:10pm.

Though I agree that these attributes would be great for the task force, they're way too limited, and I think have the huge potential to run against the rule of having financial ties to the outcome.

I don't think we should make the task force wear certain hats, rather, let "well versed" mean "well rounded."

But how do you judge that? My best guess at a measurement would be to draw a line with "gloomer" labeled on one end, and on the other end, "peaknik." Have them explain where they would place themselves on that line and why (and how they got there, where they see themselves ending up, etc. etc.)

I don't know much legalese to know if that could be put into the resolution (I'd imagine you'd have to explain peaknik and gloomer ;)

powerdown?

Submitted by Jeremy on February 23, 2006 - 10:18am.

Should we include a request to focus on options to powerdown?

Jeremy O'Leary, Working to suport my biology habit.

powerdown language could be troublesome

Submitted by localize it on February 24, 2006 - 6:28pm.

I think the idea might appear as politically dangerous and could spoil the resolution by pushing too far to an extreme (although it's hardly extreme). While I think powering down is the best solution, I'd like to see the task force come to that conclusion without specifically stating it in the resolution. This would make the politicians voting more inclined to support it, and lend more credence to the finding when it does come.

Re: Suggestion for other 7? (members)

Submitted by scotty on February 23, 2006 - 5:31pm.

Actually, I have only one (for now). It'd be interesting to see one of the members be a journalist/writer/producer/director in order to document the process. In my dream world it'd be for a piece tied into Peak Oil to air on Frontline to a worldwide audience, but even if it was something as simple and beautiful as "The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil," it could be powerful.

This documentation could (should?) also be done without the person being a member of the task force, but maybe we should write into the resolution that we want our findings (and process?) documented for distribution to a mass market. It'd be a powerful tool to show that we're not bullshitting people - the ultimate anti-secret energy task force.

So many excellent ideas!

Submitted by nw_randallscott on February 24, 2006 - 12:09am.

You are all an amazing lot! I'm so happy to be part of humanity's biggest project with you... but not really. Kind of forced, ain' it?

The magazine article has been a nice boon to awareness. I was at first embarassed of the article, and now with a couple days and a re-read, I think the w week did an excellent story, and that's not to stroke my ego. I could care less about my notariety, unless it helps our cause.

Ok, onto the serious.

I would also suggest, going into deep market research mode as to how to break this to the public. You see, we are operating on one plane, and they are on another. You could show some of them charts and shit all day long and they would sit there giggling and drooling. How do you communicate with a 30 year old fifth grader waiting for the next entertainment thingamajig to keep him numbed up?

Folks, this is advertising and marketing here... we need to Sell Peak Oil as an idea they can accept and we avoid the danger of social and violent denial. Part of this task force should include a market research budget for how to educate, prepare and train the masses for real world situations. How are we going to get every American through Survival and Acceptance boot camp? There's no F'ing way.

So we need a local campaign, somehow breaking through on a local level, making it personal so we don't need to wait for the Federal government to make them feel safe. That level of Government shattered with Katrina... the transluscent cheesecloth hath blown its threads out! We can see right through it

My apologies for any tangents to my real point: That the regular public at large won't know what hit them unless it was something as or more traumatic than the've already seen. Just what that is we don't know, but we need to research how to diffuse the fear bomb and educate as many as we can so there is calm collected behavior among cooperative communities. We need to get (Insert demographic segment here) to understand.

I can help sell any product if given the ability.

a whole different thread

Submitted by Jeremy on February 24, 2006 - 10:06am.

Good points Randy, but how about you start a new thread for this post?

Jeremy O'Leary, Working to suport my biology habit.

Great job!!

Submitted by anim on February 24, 2006 - 9:20am.

Hi all -
Just read this and I think it's great. I have several comments which I put in the form of a marked up draft. It's a Word document. I'm not sure how (if?) I can post it, so I'm emailing it to Emily and Pam.

Take it for what it's worth (not much?); just my two cents.

Andy

resolution

Submitted by Lisa on February 24, 2006 - 10:51am.

I also saw need for "sufficient" to be inserted before substitutes.

Also re: Portland's dependence on oil and NG, give a statistic, say how may CCF of gas, how many barrels oil, John Kaufmann can help you on that one.

Regarding specifics of outcome, policy recommendations will come out of this, we will have the opportunity to speak up for homeless, disadvantaged, as this process unfolds, but it is inadvisable to place too many restrictions and specifics. Even restrictions on the make-up may be too tight, but if I had my druthers, there wouldn't be Mr. Northwest Natural and Ms. Ethanol on board, for example. (financial disinterest on either side)

The five, ten AND 20 year plan may be too much to ask, especially if there are econometrics involved. The wider open we leave this the more opportunity the task force will have to think creatively.

Regarding the funding issue, if we tell them to do this, they've got to fund it. If staff is on our side, it will get its grease.

Bottom line, staff and Saltzman will let you know if they think it will fly and make recommendations for changes if they think it isn't something the council will sign off on.

Emergency Plan from Task Force

Submitted by nw_randallscott on February 25, 2006 - 1:54am.

Not to write the plan before we get any go aheads, I have some thoughts.

- When crisis is declared, it's strategically important to have agreements among Portland's / Oregon's major media, both TV and Radio. All stations would concurrently broadcast the emergency broadcast system at LEAST within the Portland Metro to command the attention of citizens.

Tom Potter could go on the air with a prepared speech, without delay or perception of anarchy. This feasably should readily calm the public and explain what is going on with clear authority and understanding. Tom Potter would announce to the public that Portland has a plan for this crisis, we're well prepared, stay calm, we are ready for this. At this point we would have a set of instructions for our citizens.

Each neighborhood would be informed of the neighborhood meeting place, read out loud like you would for school closings. The meetings would take place in large buildings, such as school gymnasiums. Portlan Peak Oil can identify Neighborhood leaders, those that are part of the action plan. Using the Freecycle model I described in a previous posting, neighborhood residents can go to the *web and look up the profile of their leaders online, read an Introduction to calm even make phone contact with the various neighborhood leaders to learn where and when to meet for the neighborhood SAFE meeting.

{This assumes: The power is still on, Portlanders have computers with Internet access, that Portlanders have somehow heard the instructions for survival. We'll need to figure out how each of these can function during the crisis.}

At the neighborhood SAFE meeting, the leaders are ready to address the neighborhood, who are able to sit in chairs in an orderly fashion. This will be the big town hall meeting they've have never had. As a safety precaution, check for weapons, none allowed, they may check them, they will be returned to them after the meeting is over. If they refuse to turn over weapons out of fear or suspicion, they may watch the meeting from outside on a screen provided, and can keep their weapons. This way, we can communicate to everyone and consider differing levels of panic. Some may not want to be coralled into a single facility due to fear.

Immediately, everyone is fed with box lunches, water is provided, while everyone settles in. An announcement is made when the local leaders will speak... give a countdown of 2 hours, 1 hour, 30 minutes, 10 minutes, 5 minutes, and begin. We have to make the experience like going to the movies. People are comfortable with that.

The neighborhood leaders are ready with a powerpoint slideshow / prepared film. It should include city officials and preparations. Show them what has been done, why they can rest assured of their safety, but that they need to pull together as a community now more than ever. This is a new kind of disaster. It's going to take a TEAM effort.

{ Whatever is in the film / PowerPoint, I don't know. It should bring them up to speed, and give clear directions as to what to do. This will include:

- Pick up their allotted emergency Kit, with provisions for a family of four for up to 5 days. (Funding will come from?) - Have flexibility, but make sure to fraud-proof the greedy hoarders that will try to get more by lying or applying general deception.

Then, send them home. Provide blankets, encourage neighbors to open their homes to one another if one has a method to heat / cook, etc. This is the time to get to know your neighbors. Employ the pot luck / immediate neighborhood suppers. Create a daily meal together. Return to normalcy as available. This assumes transportation and communication are still possible.

At this point, we have lots of options. We can ask for volunteers with needed skillsets, set up labor crews for necessary actions, including farming, construction, city fortification, any variety of mundane chores to extreme scenarios.

Obviously, there is no way to see the future, unless we have created it ahead of time.

- Randy White

If we successfully get to this level, the task force might consider taking such preparations up to the Governor across the state of Oregon / southern Washington.

hear the speaker fine with the PA setup that was available at the school. At this point, we ease them into reality. Expect any amount of reactions as emotions flare.

Here is the Freecycle plan I mentioned

Submitted by nw_randallscott on February 25, 2006 - 2:01am.

To facilitate coordination among neighborhoods, we could just use this Civic Space website and have every neighborhood available for them to click and "Drill Down", for instance:

Portland> Southeast> East Moreland

When they click East Moreland, there would be specific neighborhood instructions on the web page, and clickable links for users to see the profiles of the Neighborhood's local leaders.

This is how they are used to getting information these days, and having it set up ahead of time builds trust and makes them feel secure that we have planned for this. We can relatively control the populace at this point.

There will be stragglers who choose not to participate, and crime . violence is to be expected. The Mayor will have prepared the police force and social services such as Hospitals, Fire Departmants, etc.

By implementing a training plan, Portland can avoid what happened in New Orleans when police abandoned their posts, and generally freaked out across the board. Our Police force will enforce the law. There will still be law in the city of Portland, Oregon.

By performing this training, we are preparing citizens for any energy crisis / nuclear crisis that will occur. These are educated, working class citizens, workers living in the community. This is the first step to education and security. The city of Portland creates a pamphlet and extension to the Portland Online website explaining the energy crisis task force, why we're preparing for emergency, and what they can do to help.

Workers are encouraged to consider what they can do for a career in the new future. A future with severely limited energy supplies, dwindling resources, changing environment, and global strife.

Identify markets that can either grow or sustain with the current population of Southern Washington and Oregon. Offer cross training courses for working professionals in one of these exciting new careers during Peak Oil. Wow, now you too can learn to join the farming revolution!

Learn to prepare wonderful vegetarian dishes with gourmet cooking courses, all based on seasonal recipes from locally produced agriculture.

Learn the amazing truth about herbs and natural medicine! Prescriptions not available anymore? No problem! That powerhouse combo of locally grown X and Y will take care of that for you, combined with a new diet. Astounding! Food as medicine... relearn ancient knowledge and keep your neighborhood alive!

Survival-Landscaping: a HOT new career. Learn how to turn any normal industrial grass plot yard into a beautiful, edible oasis! Working with local Oregon nurseries, you'll take courses in Permaculture, sustainability, farming basics, even advanced courses.

General home repair and fix-it folks: Sharpen your skills! Stock up on tools that don't require electricity or oil to run.

Accountants: See survival landscaping.

Big Box store workers: See survival landscaping

Small business owners: Stock up on lots of extra inventory of: Camping gear, freeze-dried foods, water tanks, MREs, hand cranked electronics such as flashlights and radios. Load up on batteries. Buy retooled generators and have extras on hand, they won't need to be new. Used bikes will make you a lot of money.

Stockpile up on books of knowledge. Get "All in one" fix it books, a survival guide such as "When Technology Fails", great vegetarian cookbooks, and classic novels. Purchase many copies of Andreas Nothiger's "World History Chart" so we can still teach history to our kids.

That's it for tonight.

- Randy

Begin with government guidance to practice preparation drills for Peak Oil .

The Population Factor

Submitted by Robert Pace on February 25, 2006 - 10:29am.

I have not read all of the responses, so I'm not sure the topic of "population impact" has been noted. Part of this request for a task force cites the development of a 5, 10 and 20 year plan for strategies the city can take to mitigate the declining energy supplies and other areas of concern, but not limited to: water, food security, essential transportation, essential health care and communication.

The end of cheap energy is related to the growth of the world's population. Many authors, who have written about peak oil, have noted that population management is necessary if we don't want our region's natural resources to become exhausted as a result of over population and poor land use planning. We are dealing with the potential of an escalating population transfer to the Pacific Northwest. Our region will become a target for many people whose current location may not offer a livable environment as global warming furthers its impact. Global warming is also part of the peak oil dilemma.

Shouldn't we add a category that will utilize the findings of the peak oil task force in creating land use planning and population control/density management as part of the overall plan for protection of our regions finite natural resources? I believe we should manage population growth just as we would manage anything else that impacts our regions resources. Population control is a subject that must be resurrected.

Isn't the excelled growth in our world's population the reason we are running out of oil and other natural resources? Wasn't it the failure of corporations and the leadership of our country over the last 30+ years that has left us in this dilemma? Isn't it time to start talking about controlling our growth as a species? We can start controlling our own population growth or war, famine, pestilence, natural and man-made disasters will do it for us.

I agree with the population factor

Submitted by nw_randallscott on February 25, 2006 - 1:25pm.

All we need to do is look at the story of Easter Island as evidence of what will happen without fixing that problem.

The Population Factor - How To Proceed

Submitted by Robert Pace on February 27, 2006 - 10:10am.

They way we measure growth must have choices. Increases in population are one form of measurement. Another form of measurement could be how we are meeting sustainable energy creation towards an established goal.

We have a governor who recently established goals of creating 25% of our state’s future energy from renewable and alternative energy sources. He would like to accomplish this by the year 2025. Governor Kulongowski is on our side. I would like to see that 2025 date moved up a bit though, as I don't think we have than much time to make the dent in conversion that needs to be met. The worldwide chase for the remaining fossil fuel energy sources has begun.

We must offer incentives to builders to incorporate sustainable building practices into both residential and commercial designs. Building structures that actually create the energy they use through solar panels or some other technology in existence or to be developed is one way.

We hear so much from the business community about how a free and unencumbered marketplace should be the answer to economic growth. Let's give them that opportunity by creating building standards and practices that accomplish the development of energy producing products that may increase building costs in the short term but also provide economic gains to offset initial investments.

I will provide more ideas to make population control not one of managing the birth rate, but how we manage the population that believes sustainable economies are why they found the Pacific Northwest their place to live and to relocate to.

At some point, a mandatory disposition towards creating a livable and sustainable environment will be just one the prices for living in a community that gives the quality of life as much importance as the ability to make a living. The economy will always be a category we must observe when offering new ideas. How we measure that economy is where we must change the conversation.

1st draft of resolution -

Submitted by nikki on February 26, 2006 - 3:53pm.

Thanks for the efforts all. I think that the last 2 items are important enough to include.

Make Your Dent...
-Nikki Monacelli

Population continued

Submitted by jonkeyes on February 27, 2006 - 8:25am.

The draft loks great folks. Thanks for all the hard work. Hopefully this will open up some eyes/ears locally.

I also have to agree that overpopulation is the big white elephant that everyone wants to ignore. Growth is the mantra that city and regional leaders have been pressing for decades and it is the single greatest threat to managing our local bioregion. How we choose to deal with this problem will test whether Portland can be viable in terms of allocating enough sustainable local resources to our community.

Because Oregon will increasingly be seen as an oasis of natural wealth in a time of resource famine, many will continue to flock here. How do we deal with that influx and do we try to erect financial and legislative barriers to that influx? These are hard questions that have few answers. But they must be viewed as part of the overall equation.

Great start

Submitted by dahveed on February 27, 2006 - 10:16am.

Hi all

This is a great start. I think with the other comments on the thread, you will have a good draft to present back to Salzman.

My thoughts:

In case the council may be put off by the specificity of the commissions responsibilities, another possibility would be to be less specific in terms of what the commission has to do and frame more around assessing the extent to which the city is vulnerable to oil supply disruptions and oil price shocks with respect to continuing essential health/safety services and the community being able to provision itself. I am not advocating this as a change, but suggesting that it may be useful if the current draft seems overwhelming.

Another interesting possibility would be to ask the city to convene a citizens deliberative council. Essentially it is a group of citizens that constitute the refective diversity of the area and they hear the testimony of various experts, read reports, and come out with some recommendations. This has not been done for peak oil yet. Tom Atlee out of Eugene has documented the use of CDCs in his book Tao of Democracy and his site http://www.co-intelligence.org/P-CDCs. It may not be the right thing for this resolution, but it is something to keep in mind.

Best of luck and please keep me abreast of the progress.

David Room
Director of Municipal Response
Post Carbon Institute