T1. Automobile use will decline and people will seek alternative transportation for their needs.

Rising prices for gasoline and its alternatives will force consumers to choices other than conventional single-occupancy automobile travel. Increases are expected in the use of gasoline-electric hybrids and other efficient vehicles, car pooling, combined multiple trips into one, and park-and-rides. Car trips will be fewer and shorter, and car sharing will become more common. While biofuels offer a partial replacement of petroleum-based liquid fuels, their scale is limited by agricultural capacity and the need to maintain food production.

Rising fuel prices will increase the demand for added capacity in non-auto modes. Use of public transit, bicycling, and walking will increase over time as fuel prices continue to rise. Likewise, demand for compressed work weeks and teleworking will increase. The cost of providing alternative transportation infrastructure and equipment, such as light rail, buses and bike paths, will rise as oil and natural gas prices rise. The longer action is delayed, the more expensive it will be. In addition, the operating costs of transit systems will rise.

 

If the number of car trips declines, traffic congestion and demand for parking will decrease. This would lead to a reduced demand for road capacity, improved freight movement, and improved safety for bicycles, pedestrians and motorists. Land could potentially become available for other uses. However, improvements in congestion and parking availability will encourage some to get back in their cars, at least in the short run.

Land use planning, high quality public transportation, and relatively good walking and bicycling infrastructure have kept the percent of household expenditures on transportation in Portland relatively low compared to other major U.S. cities (see Table 1). Vehicle miles traveled in the Portland area have been flat or declining in recent years (see Figure 1).  Even with gasoline sales flat, however, expenditures on gasoline in Multnomah County have increased dramatically (see Figure 2).

 

T2. People and businesses will relocate to be closer to each other and to transportation options; population will likely shift

Land use patterns are strongly interrelated with transportation options. Inexpensive gasoline over the past half-century allowed for dispersed land use patterns, resulting in relatively lower population densities and longer distances between residential and commercial areas. This has made alternatives such as walking and public transit less attractive and viable.

In the long term, one of the responses to increasing costs and difficulties in transportation will be a spatial realignment of people and businesses. The question is whether it will happen quickly enough to minimize disruptions from peak oil. In addition, without public guidance or intervention, some of these realignments may leave vulnerable and marginalized populations worse off.

As automobile travel becomes more expensive, demand for housing closer to jobs, retail stores, services, schools, parks and other frequent destinations will increase, as will demand for housing that is more accessible to transportation options, such as public transit. These needs will likely spur two other changes.

 

First, there could be increased movement to city centers and reduced demand for suburban and exurban housing. As a result, homes will lose value in some areas and gain value in others, depending on the convenience of shopping, schools, work and other services. Low-income and vulnerable populations will be displaced, with residents likely relocating to “edge” areas with poor access to these services. Low-income households already spend a much higher percentage of income on transportation, and the added transportation costs associated with living farther from city centers will make life increasingly difficult, causing these populations to be further marginalized.  At the same time, the relocation of businesses, housing and services as a result of higher oil prices may create new neighborhood and town centers throughout Portland, including areas that currently have poor access to essential services.

Second, the attempt to move closer to jobs and services will increase pressure to allow mixed-use and high density development, which may conflict with current land use regulations. Densities may increase even without new development, because average household size could grow once again. Demand for and stress on public spaces will also increase.

Not only will people want to be closer to jobs and services, but the location of workplaces will shift as well. Businesses may want to be closer to customers, employees or intermodal transportation. Transportation system constraints are likely to drive changes in location and extent of supply-chain facilities and retail outlets.

T3. Transportation of freight will become more costly, likely leading to mode shifts from air and truck to rail and boat.

Freight is critical to the economy, both locally and globally. Portland is a trade-heavy economy, strongly influenced by the intersection of two interstate highways, two railroads, two navigable rivers and major port facilities, including an international airport. Raw materials, semi-processed goods and finished products must be brought into the region, and products produced locally must make their way to market. In addition, many products travel through Portland en route elsewhere. Two-thirds of energy used for freight transportation in the U.S. is for trucking and 23 percent for air. Trucks carry 75 to 80 percent of the weight and freight value shipped in Oregon; air freight accounts for about 1 percent of the weight and 7 percent of the value of goods transported nationally. Increases in oil prices could diminish the movement of freight through the region and harm the export sector. 

Peak oil could reduce freight moved by long-haul truck and air. As a result, fewer goods would travel long distances, and the array of goods moved may be narrower. This will be particularly evident for products and materials that have relatively low value for their weight. Although air is the most fuel-intensive freight mode, the products transported by air are high value and therefore may be less affected.

Rising fuel prices will shift the comparative costs of shipping by truck, air, boat and rail, with the greater fuel efficiency of rail and boat providing a stronger competitive advantage than it does today. As a result, demand for shipping by rail and boat will increase. However, railroads are operating close to capacity now, and adding railroad capacity will be difficult, expensive and slow.

The shift to rail and boat will increase demand for intermodal connections, with implications for land use. Transportation by rail and boat is also slower than truck or air freight and will influence warehousing strategies and other business practices, which could also affect land use. The most dramatic change will be in time-sensitive goods and the widely used inventory-control strategy of “just-in-time” delivery.

Sudden changes in the price or availability of oil for transportation will have significant effects on freight transportation, with ripple effect on jobs and the economy.

T4. Air travel may decline significantly.

Personal air travel will be one of the first activities to be affected. Fuel accounts for half of airlines’ costs, and this will rise post-peak. Air travel will be less affordable for discretionary trips. As with freight, some passenger travel could shift to more fuel-efficient intercity passenger transportation, most likely rail and bus.

T5. Maintenance of road infrastructure will be increasingly difficult because of loss of revenue and reliance on asphalt.

Gas tax revenues will decline as fuel conservation increases, reducing current funding sources for maintenance and construction of infrastructure. Alternatives such as tolls or weight-mile taxes will also be sensitive to reduced travel. Roads and bridges may handle less traffic and experience less wear-and-tear, but the present maintenance backlog is large and growing.

In addition to revenue constraints, road maintenance and repair will be made more difficult and costly because asphalt is a petroleum-based product. In 2005 road maintenance was hampered in some U.S. localities because of the high cost of asphalt. Concrete, which is currently more expensive than asphalt, is also energy-intensive and will increase in cost as fuel prices climb.