T1. Automobile use will decline and people will seek alternative transportation for their needs.

Rising prices for gasoline and its alternatives will force consumers to choices other than conventional single-occupancy automobile travel. Increases are expected in the use of gasoline-electric hybrids and other efficient vehicles, car pooling, combined multiple trips into one, and park-and-rides. Car trips will be fewer and shorter, and car sharing will become more common. While biofuels offer a partial replacement of petroleum-based liquid fuels, their scale is limited by agricultural capacity and the need to maintain food production.

Rising fuel prices will increase the demand for added capacity in non-auto modes. Use of public transit, bicycling, and walking will increase over time as fuel prices continue to rise. Likewise, demand for compressed work weeks and teleworking will increase. The cost of providing alternative transportation infrastructure and equipment, such as light rail, buses and bike paths, will rise as oil and natural gas prices rise. The longer action is delayed, the more expensive it will be. In addition, the operating costs of transit systems will rise.

 

If the number of car trips declines, traffic congestion and demand for parking will decrease. This would lead to a reduced demand for road capacity, improved freight movement, and improved safety for bicycles, pedestrians and motorists. Land could potentially become available for other uses. However, improvements in congestion and parking availability will encourage some to get back in their cars, at least in the short run.

Land use planning, high quality public transportation, and relatively good walking and bicycling infrastructure have kept the percent of household expenditures on transportation in Portland relatively low compared to other major U.S. cities (see Table 1). Vehicle miles traveled in the Portland area have been flat or declining in recent years (see Figure 1).  Even with gasoline sales flat, however, expenditures on gasoline in Multnomah County have increased dramatically (see Figure 2).