The Task Force findings illustrate the central role that oil and natural gas play in our daily lives. They depict the profound economic and social vulnerabilities that could result as fuel supplies cease to be abundant and inexpensive. The magnitude of this issue led the Task Force to explore bold and far-reaching solutions. The Task Force is unified in urging strong and immediate action.
The Task Force recommends preparedness on two different levels. Most of the recommendations seek to reduce Portland’s exposure to rising fuel prices, anticipating the economic and lifestyle adjustments that will be needed in the future. Other recommendations prepare Portland to maintain community stability as volatile energy markets trigger conditions ranging from emergency shortages to longer-term economic disruption.
The Task Force proposes a dramatic reduction in fuel use, far beyond the level of change achieved by current or past efficiency and conservation initiatives. It envisions cutting oil and natural gas consumption in half, transforming how energy is used in transportation, food supply, buildings and manufacturing. It proposes strategies to maintain business viability and employment in an energy-constrained marketplace.
However well Portland succeeds in its energy transition, it will not be able to isolate itself from global energy crises or the resulting economic impacts. A strong, dynamic community is essential to responding to the social and economic stress of such a major transition, and Portland must accelerate its efforts to foster a resilient, interconnected community. The Task Force sees the potential for profound economic hardship and high levels of unemployment, and it recommends having plans in place to adapt social and economic support systems accordingly. Similarly, contingency plans are needed for emergency fuel shortages.
As the Task Force developed its recommendations, several guiding principles emerged. These themes apply across the identified strategies and should be consulted as points of reference as the community refines and implements the recommendations.
Change on the scale suggested requires broad participation from all sectors of society. Neither the City of Portland nor any other government can accomplish such change alone. The City can, however, play a catalytic role by informing and mobilizing the community, setting a positive example and convening partners to develop solutions.
A “wait and see” approach to this issue will diminish opportunities Portland now has to reduce its exposure in a meaningful way. The recommended changes will take years to implement and will be easier to afford while the economy is still relatively strong. Uncertainty concerning oil and natural gas supplies, rather than being an excuse for delay, is in fact an argument for urgency. The tightening of energy supplies could well occur quite soon and suddenly. Even if it occurs later, buildings and infrastructure being planned and built today will last for many decades and should be designed for a more constrained energy future.
The recommendations propose major changes for Portland, but the Task Force believes their implementation will have an overall positive social and economic impact. Local residents and businesses will enjoy the health benefits and financial savings of cleaner air and walkable communities. They will also benefit economically as dollars spent on imported fuels are redirected into the local economy. This presents a significant economic development opportunity for Portland businesses and residents.
While the recommendations include development of biofuels and other renewable sources, these sources can replace only a fraction of the oil and natural gas used today. The solution is a multi-faceted approach, with greatest emphasis on reducing energy demand through energy efficiency, frugality and reorganizing lifestyles and the urban landscape.
The impacts of increasing oil and natural gas costs are felt first and deepest among vulnerable and marginalized populations. Portland’s energy strategies must pay particular attention to the needs of these populations, recognizing that many people lack the resources to adapt (e.g., by buying a hybrid car or installing a solar water heater) and tend to be under-represented in planning or policy decisions.
Global warming is a defining issue of our time, and it will grow as a focus of international policy and action. The recommendations presented in this report align closely with those in the Portland-Multnomah Local Action Plan on Global Warming. The urgency and level of action required are similar. The City should continue to connect these issues as it communicates with the public and implements the recommended strategies. It should also be cautious that efforts to reduce reliance on oil and natural gas do not lead to increased use of coal (for production of liquid fuels or electricity), which would greatly increase greenhouse gas emissions.
In applying these principles, the Task Force outlined a comprehensive package of recommendations, proposing strategies to initiate institutional change and to motivate action by households and businesses. Of these recommendations, the first and most fundamental is to reduce oil and natural gas use by 50 percent over the next 25 years. While all the recommendations are important, without meaningful implementation of this first one—actually achieving a significant reduction in oil and natural gas use—Portland will experience a more economically and socially damaging transition to an energy-constrained future.
Collectively, the recommendations address the need for:
Achieving a significant reduction in oil and natural gas use, to ease the transition to an energy-constrained future.
Leadership, to build the public will, community spirit and institutional capacity needed to implement the ambitious changes.
Urban design, to address the challenge at a community scale.
Expanded efficiency and conservation programs, to shape the many energy choices made by individual households and businesses.
Sustainable economic development, to foster the growth of businesses that can supply energy-efficient solutions and provide employment and wealth creation in a new economic context.
Social and economic support systems, to keep the impacts of fuel price increases from evolving into broader disruption for Portlanders, particularly for lower-income households.