Reduce total oil and natural gas consumption by 50 percent over the next 25 years.

With the Local Action Plan on Global Warming, the City of Portland has already adopted goals for reducing consumption of fossil fuels both in its own operations and in the community as a whole. However, the potentially imminent vulnerabilities posed by peak oil, paired with the increasing urgency of global warming, call for more aggressive and far-reaching goals.

A dramatic reduction in fuel use will help buffer Portland from the vulnerabilities of a volatile global energy market. This inevitable transition away from oil and natural gas will be made much easier if Portland takes action immediately rather than waiting until the marketplace forces a response. 

A 50 percent reduction over 25 years (an absolute, not per capita reduction) is a meaningful goal from the perspectives of both peak oil and global warming.

• The Oil Depletion Protocol is a proposed international agreement under which nations would reduce their consumption at the rate at which known oil reserves are being depleted. This rate is estimated to be 2.6 percent reduction annually, or approximately 50 percent over the next 25 years.
• A recent global policy analysis from the United Kingdom calls for steep reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, which are primarily attributable to fossil fuel use. Reducing oil dependence helps Portland stay ahead of policy changes that may result as international will to address climate change grows.
  

The risks of the worst impacts of climate change can be substantially reduced if  greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere can be stabilised between 450 and 550ppm CO2 equivalent (CO2e) … Stabilisation in this range would require emissions to be at least 25% below current levels by 2050, and perhaps much more … Ultimately, stabilisation—at whatever level—requires that annual emissions be brought down to more than 80% below current levels.

                —Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 30 October 2006

• As the City seeks to reduce reliance on oil and natural gas, it should be cautious that its efforts do not lead to increased use of coal (for production of liquid fuels or electricity), which would greatly increase greenhouse gas emissions. [7]

The Task Force proposes the 50% reduction recognizing that it is a challenging target considering Portland’s continued population growth. While Portland is known for its successful transportation and building-efficiency programs, reductions in per capita energy consumption have been offset by growth of the population. Cutting total consumption in half will require a two-thirds reduction on a per capita basis. While daunting, a number of factors suggest this target is achievable.

• Over 25 years, the fleet of vehicles in the region will turn over twice, offering opportunity to switch to more efficient options. Similarly, older, less-efficient appliances and furnaces will require replacement.
• Because of the state energy code, new construction is much more efficient than the existing building stock; even more promising is that green building projects are dramatically surpassing the energy code. For example, Oregon Health Science University’s new building exceeded energy code requirements by over 50 percent, while actually reducing construction costs. Residents of the most efficient new housing projects enjoy utility bills less than one-third the amount they would have to pay in older, comparably-sized buildings.
• The American Institute of Architects Board of Directors and U.S. Conference of Majors adopted The 2030 Challenge, a program that calls for all new buildings to reduce fossil fuel use by 50 percent with a goal of gradually reaching carbon neutrality for all new and existing buildings by 2030.  Building operations currently consume 40 percent of all energy used in the U.S.
• Just 50 years ago, the average American home was half the size it is today. Even a partial reversal of this growth trend would yield significant reductions in home energy use.
• In other wealthy countries such as Denmark and the United Kingdom, per capita energy consumption is already half the level in the United States.

Action items:

a)     Adopt a resolution declaring an overall reduction goal. Portland City Council can play a key leadership role by articulating a vision for our energy future. 

b)    Develop specific reduction targets necessary for achieving the overall reduction goal. These include targets for specific residential and business sectors. Annual and five-year targets should also be established.

c)     Require City bureaus to set reduction targets for their operations. Bureau sustainability plans may be a vehicle for establishing and tracking these targets.

d)    Initiate a data gathering and analysis system to assess progress toward meeting goals. This system would track progress on an aggregate and per capita basis, quantify reductions in specific residential and business sectors, and monitor implementation of action plans. This effort would augment the carbon emissions tracking that currently takes place.

e)     Develop mechanisms to keep community decision-makers informed of trends in energy markets, including the global fuel supply situation and local impacts such as how residents are being affected by higher fuel prices.