I figured the group might be interested in the 90+ page PDF provided to the taskforce members. It is far too long to post as one forum topic, but here are the parts about "what is peak oil" and "how sure are we about it".
What Is “Peak Oil?”
The term “peak oil” refers to the idea that the rate of global oil production is near or past its peak and will soon begin a long-term decline. When an oil field is developed, there is a maximum rate of production which can be sustained without damaging the field − if it is pumped too fast, groundwater may intrude or the internal structure of the field may otherwise be compromised. That eventually happens anyway when about half the oil in a field has been produced, and it becomes more difficult and expensive to pump what remains. At that point the production rate can no longer be maintained, and it begins to decline.
Regional or national production is maintained or increased by adding production from new fields, not by pumping more out of existing fields. When production from a large number of fields has peaked and begun to decline, and there are not enough large new fields being found and developed to offset the lost production, the system is said to have peaked. As with individual fields, this is expected to happen when about half or slightly more of the ultimately recoverable oil has been produced. Peak oil does not mean that no more oil exists, but that we’re at the point where global production can no longer be maintained or increased. Production will no longer be able to meet growing demand as it has been able to do in the past. Instead, production will begin to decline, year after year. If demand does not decline at the same rate as production, prices will rise, and alternatives will need to be found or prices will rise, with attendant economic and social consequences.
Peak oil typically encompasses the idea of peak natural gas as well. Natural gas is often found in association with oil (it is also found “non-associated”). It has many similar uses, and oil and gas can often be substituted for one another. Together oil and natural gas account for 65 percent of the primary energy used in the U.S. and worldwide. Natural gas follows a production curve similar to oil. World natural gas is expected to peak perhaps a decade or two later than oil. However, the U.S. is expected to experience the effects sooner than that. North American gas production appears to have peaked in the past few years and, unlike oil, it is more difficult and expensive to import replacement natural gas from overseas − it has to be liquefied for transport and then re-gasified for distribution.
How Sure Are We About Peak Oil?
Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource. As a limited resource, it is inevitable that the ability to extract it will eventually peak and begin to decline. The only question is when. Is that day a long way off, or is it close? Is there cause to be worried?
Opinions differ as to when production will peak. Some experts believe the peak is imminent or has already happened. Others believe it will occur in the next 10 to 15 years. The most optimistic opinions place the peak around 2030 to 2040. The primary difference revolves around two related questions: estimates of how much oil remains to be discovered, and estimates of earth’s ultimately recoverable reserves.
A review of the literature suggests the peak likely will occur sooner rather than later. There is no single conclusive piece of evidence; rather, there is a preponderance of evidence pointing toward this conclusion. The reasons are outlined below.
Arguments Against Peak Oil
The main arguments against peak oil are as follows.
1) Reserves have been growing.
2) Current problems, like those of the 1970s, are political in nature. Political problems in Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria may affect prices, but they do not address long-term trends in discoveries.
3) “We’ve heard this before.” There have been repeated claims in the past that oil is running out, most recently in the 1970s, and none have come to pass. Each time, critics claim, price signals elicited new exploration and discoveries.
The primary difference between earlier claims and the current debate is the knowledge base. The current claims are based on considerably more historical data and perspective, and better analytical tools and methods. That said, uncertainties remain around the peak and decline of world oil production. While unlikely, it is possible the optimists are correct and the peak is 15 years away or longer. It is possible that some nations have as many or more reserves than currently estimated, or that significant new discoveries will be made. It is also possible that unconventional resources (oil sands, oil shale, coal-to-liquids, etc.) will be developed soon and can offset the decline in conventional oil.
However, even if the optimists are correct and the world holds 3 trillion barrels of ultimately recoverable oil, at current rates of consumption and growth the peak would be delayed only a decade or slightly more. But the implications of peak oil are so potentially profound, it would be prudent to begin mitigation efforts now. Robert Hirsch, co-author of the highly regarded report completed for the U.S. government, “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management,” concludes that peak oil is going to happen, although the timing is uncertain, and that it could cost the U.S. economy dearly. The report further concludes that to have substantial impact, mitigation options “must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking...Mitigation efforts initiated earlier than required may turn out to be premature if peaking is long delayed. On the other hand, if peaking is imminent, failure to initiate timely mitigation could be extremely damaging.”