Sustainability 101: Arithmetic, Population, and Energy

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<!--Optional Full-size image ends--> <!--ITEM DETAILS--> <!--shared3/catalogs/common/item_details.inc begins--> Sustainability 101: Arithmetic, Population, and Energy

Dr. Albert A. Bartlett, Professor Emeritus

Department of Physics

University of Colorado, Boulder

"THE GREATEST SHORTCOMING OF THE HUMAN RACE IS OUR INABILITY TO UNDERSTAND THE EXPONENTIAL FUNCTION."

With these words, Professor Al Bartlett opens part one of a presentation in which he shows that the forgotten fundamental of the energy crisis is the elementary arithmetic of growth.

Our world's technological societies operate on an assumption of continued steady growth of populations, resource consumption and the gross national product. CAN THESE GROWTHS CONTINUE? This question is answered by explaining the arithmetic of steady growth.

Professor Bartlett explains "doubling time," which is the time it takes for a growing quantity to double in size. He uses doubling time to show how one can predict the consequences of steady growth in examples such as inflation and the population growth of our communities, our nation, and the world.

In part two the program turns to the problem of steady growth in a finite environment: the situation we face as we deplete our fossil fuel resources. When steady growth occurs in a finite environment, the end of these resources comes frighteningly fast.

These facts are compared to the wildly optimistic estimates and public pronouncements that appear in many highly regarded sources. This discrepancy between fact and opinion creates confusion about the energy situation.

The presentation concludes with recommendations of a course of action that we must adopt in order to make a smooth, rather than a painful, transition to a future of reduced population and reduced energy usage.

Professor Bartlett has given this talk over fourteen hundred times in all parts of the United States and a number of times in Canada to audiences ranging from junior high school and college students to corporate executives and scientists, to congressional staffs. The talk is based on the paper, "Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis," American Journal of Physics, Vol. 46, pp. 876-888, Sept. 1978, and revised in the Journal of Geological Education, Vol. 28 #1, pp.4-35, Jan. 1980. Copies of the paper may be obtained by writing directly to Professor Bartlett at the University of Colorado, Department of Physics, 390 UCB, Boulder, Colorado 80309, or email him at Albert.Bartlett@colorado.edu.

Professor Bartlett has a BA degree from Colgate University and MA and PhD degrees in Nuclear Physics from Harvard University. He has been a member of the faculty of the University of Colorado since 1950. In 1978, he was President of the American Association of Physics Teachers, and in 1981 he received the Association's Robert A. Millikan Award.

PAL, VHS, NTSC formats available upon request. Please call 800-255-9168 to order PAL or VHS copies. Some production delay and additional cost may apply. Normal shipping rates apply. The DVD featured here is formatted to play on North American DVD players. This item is non-returnable. Exchanges for defectives only.

THE END OF SUBURBIA: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of The American Dream

http://endofsuburbia.com 

"We're literally stuck up a cul-de-sac in a cement SUV without a fill-up" - James Howard Kunstler

 

Since World War II North Americans have invested much of their newfound wealth in suburbia. It has promised a sense of space, affordability, family life and upward mobility. As the population of suburban sprawl has exploded in the past 50 years, so too has the suburban way of life become embedded in the American consciousness.

Suburbia, and all it promises, has become the American Dream.

But as we enter the 21st century, serious questions are beginning to emerge about the sustainability of this way of life. With brutal honesty and a touch of irony, The End of Suburbia explores the American Way of Life and its prospects as the planet approaches a critical era, as global demand for fossil fuels begins to outstrip supply. World Oil Peak and the inevitable decline of fossil fuels are upon us now, some scientists and policy makers argue in this documentary.

The consequences of inaction in the face of this global crisis are enormous. What does Oil Peak mean for North America? As energy prices skyrocket in the coming years, how will the populations of suburbia react to the collapse of their dream? Are today's suburbs destined to become the slums of tomorrow? And what can be done NOW, individually and collectively, to avoid The End of Suburbia ?

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The Power of Community: How Cuba survived peak oil.

http://www.communitysolution.org/cuba.html

 

The documentary, "The Power of Community – How Cuba Survived Peak Oil," was inspired when Faith Morgan and Pat Murphy took a trip to Cuba through Global Exchange in August, 2003. That year Pat had begun studying and speaking about worldwide peak oil production. In May Pat and Faith attended the second meeting of The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, a European group of oil geologists and scientists, which predicted that mankind was perilously close to having used up half of the world's oil resources. When they learned that Cuba underwent the loss of over half of its oil imports and survived, after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990, the couple wanted to see for themselves how Cuba had done this. During their first trip to Cuba, in the summer of 2003, they traveled from Havana to Trinidad and through several other towns on their way back to Havana. They found what Cubans call "The Special Period" astounding and Cuban's responses very moving. Faith found herself wanting to document on film Cuba's successes so that what they had done wouldn't be lost. Both of them wanted to learn more about Cuba's transition from large farms or plantations and reliance on fossil-fuel-based pesticides and fertilizers, to small organic farms and urban gardens. Cuba was undergoing a transition from a highly industrial society to a sustainable one. Cuba became, for them, a living example of how a country can successfully traverse what we all will have to deal with sooner or later, the reduction and loss of finite fossil fuel resources. In the fall of 2003 Pat and Faith had the opportunity to return to Cuba to study its agriculture. It was a wonderful trip. They saw much of the island, met many farmers and urban gardeners, scientists and engineers – traveling more than 1700 miles, from one end of Cuba to the other. It was all they had hoped for and more. In 2004 Community Service, Inc. (CSI) began raising money and organizing a third trip (October), to film in Cuba. Greg Green, cinematographer and director of The End of Suburbia documentary, was the chief videographer. Faith Morgan shot the second camera, John Morgan did still photography and Megan Quinn, Outreach Director of CSI, was sound director. After their return from Cuba, they secured assistance and direction from Tom Blessing IV, producer, and Eric Johnson, post-production supervisor and editor. Together, they bring over 40 years combined experience in film and television production. The goals of this film are to give hope to the developed world as it wakes up to the consequences of being hooked on oil, and to lift American's prejudice of Cuba by showing the Cuban people as they are. The filmmakers do this by having the people tell their story on film. It's a story of their dedication to independence and triumph over adversity, and a story of cooperation and hope. Several Cubans expressed the belief that living on an island, with its natural boundaries, breeds awareness that there are limits to natural resources. Everyone who has worked on the documentary hopes that, seeing this film, people will also see the world on which we live, as another, much larger, island. Return to top for ordering

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City of Portland's Peak Oil Task Force Briefing Book

I figured the group might be interested in the 90+ page PDF provided to the taskforce members.  It is far too long to post as one forum topic, but here are the parts about "what is peak oil" and "how sure are we about it".

 

What Is “Peak Oil?”

The term “peak oil” refers to the idea that the rate of global oil production is near or past its peak and will soon begin a long-term decline. When an oil field is developed, there is a maximum rate of production which can be sustained without damaging the field − if it is pumped too fast, groundwater may intrude or the internal structure of the field may otherwise be compromised. That eventually happens anyway when about half the oil in a field has been produced, and it becomes more difficult and expensive to pump what remains. At that point the production rate can no longer be maintained, and it begins to decline.  

Regional or national production is maintained or increased by adding production from new fields, not by pumping more out of existing fields. When production from a large number of fields has peaked and begun to decline, and there are not enough large new fields being found and developed to offset the lost production, the system is said to have peaked. As with individual fields, this is expected to happen when about half or slightly more of the ultimately recoverable oil has been produced. Peak oil does not mean that no more oil exists, but that we’re at the point where global production can no longer be maintained or increased. Production will no longer be able to meet growing demand as it has been able to do in the past.  Instead, production will begin to decline, year after year. If demand does not decline at the same rate as production, prices will rise, and alternatives will need to be found or prices will rise, with attendant economic and social consequences.

Peak oil typically encompasses the idea of peak natural gas as well. Natural gas is often found in association with oil (it is also found “non-associated”). It has many similar uses, and oil and gas can often be substituted for one another. Together oil and natural gas account for 65 percent of the primary energy used in the U.S. and worldwide. Natural gas follows a production curve similar to oil. World natural gas is expected to peak perhaps a decade or two later than oil. However, the U.S. is expected to experience the effects sooner than that. North American gas production appears to have peaked in the past few years and, unlike oil, it is more difficult and expensive to import replacement natural gas from overseas − it has to be liquefied for transport and then re-gasified for distribution. 

 

How Sure Are We About Peak Oil?

Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource. As a limited resource, it is inevitable that the ability to extract it will eventually peak and begin to decline. The only question is when.  Is that day a long way off, or is it close?  Is there cause to be worried?

Opinions differ as to when production will peak.  Some experts believe the peak is imminent or has already happened. Others believe it will occur in the next 10 to 15 years.   The most optimistic opinions place the peak around 2030 to 2040. The primary difference revolves around two related questions:  estimates of how much oil remains to be discovered, and estimates of earth’s ultimately recoverable reserves.

A review of the literature suggests the peak likely will occur sooner rather than later.  There is no single conclusive piece of evidence; rather, there is a preponderance of evidence pointing toward this conclusion. The reasons are outlined below.

1. In the long run, production cannot exceed discoveries.  Experience indicates that production lags discovery by 25 to 40 years. For example, in the U.S., discoveriespeaked in the early 1930s, and production peaked in 1971.
2. World discoveries of oil peaked in the early 1960s, and have declined ever since.
3. Discoveries fell below production for the first time in the mid-1980s and have continued to fall. That means the world is currently drawing down reserves.  The world currently finds one barrel for every four-to-six it produces and uses.
4. The modeling technique developed by petroleum geologist M. King Hubbert in 1956, which predicted the peak of U.S. oil production in 1970, has been updated and showsworld oil peaking in this decade. Hubbert himself predicted world oil would peak at the beginning of this decade.
5. New discoveries have tended to be fewer, smaller, deeper, more remote, and more costly. Large, easy-to-find deposits are likely to have been discovered first.  
6. Knowledge of where oil may or may not be located is more extensive than ever.  Geologists have identified what kind of geological formations are likely to produce and hold oil, and the earth’s geology has been extensively mapped. In addition, millions of wells have been drilled looking for oil and other resources. The likelihood of finding new fields comparable to those in Saudi Arabia, or even the U.S., Iran, Mexico, Kuwait, or the North Sea, is very low.  
7. Additions to reserves have typically come from updating the estimates of old discoveries, not from new finds.
8. Estimates of existing reserves are unreliable. Reserve estimates of OPEC member nations were increased about 60 percent in the late 1980s for political reasons relating to production quotas. In the past two years, Shell Oil and Kuwait downgraded their estimates of proved reserves by 20 percent or more.
9. About two-thirds of oil-producing nations have already peaked and are in decline, including the U.S., Mexico, and the North Sea (U.K. and Norway).
10. At least two of the world’s five largest fields ever found − Burgan in Kuwait and Cantarell in Mexico − have peaked and begun to decline.
11. Estimates of ultimately recoverable reserves have held reasonably steady at around 2 trillion barrels for fifty years. The world has used about 1 trillion barrels to date.  Optimistic estimates that the earth holds 3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil would require a reversal of discovery trends and a doubling of remaining reserves. 

Arguments Against Peak Oil

The main arguments against peak oil are as follows.

1) Reserves have been growing.

2) Current problems, like those of the 1970s, are political in nature. Political problems in Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria may affect prices, but they do not address long-term trends in discoveries. 

3)  “We’ve heard this before.” There have been repeated claims in the past that oil is running out, most recently in the 1970s, and none have come to pass. Each time, critics claim, price signals elicited new exploration and discoveries.  

 

The primary difference between earlier claims and the current debate is the knowledge base. The current claims are based on considerably more historical data and perspective, and better analytical tools and methods. That said, uncertainties remain around the peak and decline of world oil production. While unlikely, it is possible the optimists are correct and the peak is 15 years away or longer. It is possible that some nations have as many or more reserves than currently estimated, or that significant new discoveries will be made. It is also possible that unconventional resources (oil sands, oil shale, coal-to-liquids, etc.) will be developed soon and can offset the decline in conventional oil. 

However, even if the optimists are correct and the world holds 3 trillion barrels of ultimately recoverable oil, at current rates of consumption and growth the peak would be delayed only a decade or slightly more. But the implications of peak oil are so potentially profound, it would be prudent to begin mitigation efforts now. Robert Hirsch, co-author of the highly regarded report completed for the U.S. government, “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management,” concludes that peak oil is going to happen, although the timing is uncertain, and that it could cost the U.S. economy dearly. The report further concludes that to have substantial impact, mitigation options “must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking...Mitigation efforts initiated earlier than required may turn out to be premature if peaking is long delayed.  On the other hand, if peaking is imminent, failure to initiate timely mitigation could be extremely damaging.”

METRO: Reports and materials related to oil supply uncertainty

Metro protects open space and parks, plans for land use and transportation, and manages garbage disposal and recycling for 1.3 million residents in three counties and 25 cities in the Portland, Oregon, region. More about Metro… 

http://www.metro-region.org/article.cfm?articleID=18951

Check the links below to download the latest Metro reports and presentions on the supply of oil and how it impacts the region's transportation and land use systems.

• White paper: Future Oil Supply Uncertainty and Metro whitepaper_oil_supply_uncertainty.pdf | 592K Adobe Acrobat PDF | Published April 18, 2006
• Presentation: Future Oil Supply Uncertainty and Metro oil_supply_uncertainty_ppt.pdf | 807K Adobe Acrobat PDF | Published April 18, 2006