ASPO Newsletter 72 - December 2006

 

771.  Regional Assessment  - NORTH AMERICA

772.  The BBC covers gas depletion

773. Climate Change and Oil Depletion

774. The IEA confesses.

775. More assertions from CERA

776. The Meaning of Reserves

777. Impact of the Oil Depletion Protocol

778. National Petroleum Council of the USA

779. Oil Price

 

Index of Country & Regional Assessments with Newsletter Reference (*revised)

 

Abu Dhabi

42

Chad

59

Iraq

24

Oman

39

USA

23

Algeria

41

China

40

Italy

43

Peru

45

Venezuela

*67

Angola

36

Colombia

*62

Kazakhstan

49

Qatar

58

Vietnam

53

Argentina

33

Denmark

47

Kuwait

38

Romania

55

AFRICA

68

Australia

28

Ecuador

29

Libya

34

Russia

31

EURASIA

69

Azerbaijan

44

Egypt

30

Malaysia

51

Syria

*60

EUROPE

70

Bolivia

56

Gabon

50

Mexico

35

S. Arabia

*66

L.AMERICA

71

Brasil

26

India

52

Netherlands

57

Trinidad

37

N.AMERICA

72

Brunei

54

Indonesia

*61

Nigeria

27

Turkey

46

 

 

Canada

48

Iran

32

Norway

25

UK

*68

 

 

 

The General Depletion Picture

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ESTIMATED PRODUCTION TO 2100

End 2005

Amount

Gb

Annual Rate - Regular Oil

Gb

Peak

Regular Oil

Mb/d

2005

2010

2015

2020

2050

Total

Date

Past

Future

Total

US-48

3.6

2.8

2.2

1.7

0.4

200

1971

Known Fields

New

 

W.Europe

5.0

3.4

2.3

1.6

0.2

75

2000

967

788

145

1900

Russia

9.2

8.5

6.9

5.7

1.5

220

1987

 

933

 

ME Gulf

20

19

19

19

11

680

1974

All Liquids

Other

29

27

23

20

8

725

2004

1043

1457

2500

World

66

61

54

48

21

1900

2005

2005 Base Scenario

Annual Rate – Other Categories

 

 

M.East producing at capacity

Heavy etc.

2.3

3

4

4

4

150

2021

(anomalous reporting corrected)

Deepwater

3.6

12

11

6

0

69

2011

Regular Oil excludes Heavy Oils

Polar

0.9

1

1

2

0

52

2030

(inc. tarsands, oilshales); Polar oil;

Gas Liquid

6.9

12

13

14

11

354

2035

Deepwater oil, & gasplant NGL

Rounding

 

1

2

 

-2

-25

 

Revised

20/08/2006

 

ALL

80

90

85

75

35

2500

2010

 

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771. Regional Assessment - North America

The North America Region, as defined for the purpose of this study, comprises only the United States and Canada, with Mexico, which is sometimes included, here treated as part of Latin America. In topographic terms, it covers an area of almost 20 M km2, being flanked by the Pacific, North Atlantic, and Arctic Oceans, as well as the Caribbean. The Rocky Mountains form the western margin, while the more ancient Appalachians adjoin the eastern seabord. A series of great lakes straddles the interior boundary between the two countries, while the Hudson Bay forms a large embayment in northern Canada. The great Mississippi River drains the interior, flowing south into the Caribbean at New Orleans.

The Region supports a population of 325 million with an average density of 16.3 per km2. The fertility rate is a near-stable two children per woman, although the population is expanding thanks to immigration, mainly from Latin America.

The early history is little known, but the region was evidently settled by migrants who managed to cross the Bering Strait from Asia at the end of the Ice Age, becoming the well-known Red Indians, who lived on buffalo in the great interior plains.  Florida and the southwest were previously under Spanish dominion before being overun by large scale immigration. Britain had established a series of colonies along the east coast of the United States in 17th Century to absorb its surplus population while the French took control of Louisiana, and Quebec in Canada. Slavery brought in large numbers of Africans to the southern States until its abolition in 1830, and the Irish famine prompted another wave immigrants around 1850. Most of the European immigrants were forced out of their home countries by raw necessity when the growing populations became insupportable. It had even become necessary to import bird excrement from South America in sailing ships to try to improve crop yields. The indigenous population of North America was virtually exterminated by the immigrants, partly under the notion of what was described as their Manifold Destiny.

Resentment over the payment of tax to the British Crown had led to a successful war of independence, supported by France, which ended in a peace treaty in 1783. However, various internal disputes continued, and erupted into civil war between the north and the more agrarian south from 1861 to 1865, with slavery being one of the elements in dispute. The interior and western parts of the country were opened up over the ensuing years, being partly encouraged by the discovery of gold in California. Political union between the various States was achieved in a series of steps. Canada, for its part, remained under British control, following a conflict with the French, to become a Dominion of the British Commonwealth. French Canadians remember their cultural heritage in Quebec, where French is still spoken. Alaska was purchased from the Russian Czar for $7.2 million dollars in 1867, becoming the 49th State of the American Union in 1959.

Oil was found in Pennsylvania in 1859, being at first used as a substititute for whale oil as fuel for lamps, while vast deposits of coal and other minerals were tapped to provide the basis for an Industrial Revolution during the latter part of the 19th Century. The Federal Reserve Bank, which was founded by a group of London financiers, grew in stature as a form of privately-owned Central Bank to fund the economic expansion. It threw up various capitalistic dynasties, which gradually extended their influence around the world, as the British Empire went into eclipse as a result of two world wars.  The United States, which was home to many German immigrants, had remained neutral for much of the First World War before joining in the latter stages of the conflict in April 1917, when Britain confirmed the Balfour Declaration of 1916, establishing a homeland for the Jewish people in Palestine. Substantial loans had been made to  Britain and France which would have been at serious risk if these countries had lost the war. Victory gave the country a new geopolitical importance in the ensuing peace treaty which, amongst other things, led to the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire, which previously controlled the oil-rich Middle East outside Persia (Iran).

The US economy blossomed after the First World War before over-reaching itself in a speculative bubble that burst on the trading floors in October 1929, leading to the first Great Depression. This was a searing experience, putting one-third of the US workforce out of work, and led to an epoch of almost socialist policies under the so-called New Deal. That was followed by the Second World War, which the United States joined in 1940 following a Japanese attack upon its fleet in Pearl Harbour in Hawaii. The incident, of which there was apparently fore-knowledge from radio intercepts, gave popular support for the declaration of war. Having campaigned from the Pacific to North Africa, the country emerged victorious in 1945 having dropped two atomic bombs to vapourise Japanese cities. Victory paved the way for a new financial hegemony under the dollar.

A new enemy in the form of the Soviet Union, its wartime ally, was then identified, prompting the so-called Cold War, when the two sides, now armed with nuclear weapons, glared at each other across a divided world. Armed conflict as such was confined to Korea and Viet Nam, ending in something close to stalemates. The Cold War gave rise to a massive and highly profitable arms industry, underpinning a new global market in which the dollar played a profitable role as the premier trading currency. The Cold War came to an end around 1990, following the fall of the Communist Government of Russia, but has now been succeeded by the so-called War on Terror, which has led to the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. They were intended to strengthen the US presence in the oil-rich Middle East and Caspian regions but the outcome remains uncertain given the alienation of the peoples of the Region.

In terms of oil history, the initial finds in Pennsylvania were followed during the early years of the last Century by major discoveries in Illinois, Oklahoma, California and Texas. These developments involved exceptionally large drilling campaigns both because the exploration technology was relatively primitive in those early days and because of a unique legal environment, whereby the mineral rights belonged to the landowner. Although the industry was fragmented for these reasons, it did spawn some of the world’s largest oil companies, comprising Texaco, Gulf Oil and the daughters of the Standard Oil empire of Mr Rockefeller (Exxon, Mobil, Chevron, Arco, and Amoco), which later consolidated and contracted through merger. Subsequent phases of development included the opening of an oil province in Western Canada in the 1950s, offshore exploration in the Gulf of Mexico, California and eastern Canada, as well as Arctic operations in Alaska and northern Canada. The final step arrives with a move to deepwater exploration in the Gulf of Mexico.

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Two other elements deserve special mention. First, was the empowerment of the Texas Railroad Commission to restrict production to support price at times of glut. This was in conflict with the precepts of classical market economics, becoming the inspiration for the creation of OPEC in 1959. The second is the reserve reporting practices imposed by the Stock Exchange regulator (SEC), whose rules were designed to prevent fraudulent exaggeration, but smiled on cautious under-reporting. As a result, reported reserves were subject to upward revision over time giving a comforting but misleading impression of steady growth. These conditions, together with the highly fragmented ownership, have made it virtually impossible to obtain an accurate discovery record, with the following table of giant fields giving no more than a somewhat outdated approximation. In addition are a few recent deepwater giant fields including Atlantis with 500 Mb, Thunder Horse with 800 Mb, and possibly the recent Jack discovery in ultra-deepwater which has yet to be confirmed as a giant, despite enthusiastic press reports before the election.

 

Field

Date

Mb

Field

Date

Mb

Field

Date

Mb

Bradford (O)

1871

700

HuntingtonBeach(C)

1920

1000

Hawkins  (T)

1940

500

Lima Indiana (O)

1885

500

Long Beach (C)

1921

900

Golden Trend (O)

1946

500

Coalinga (C)

1887

700

Yates (T)

1926

1300

Leduc (CN)

1947

500

Midway Sunset (C)

1894

1200

OklahomaCity(O)

1928

800

Kelly Snider (T)

1948

1700

Kern River (C )

1899

600

Bay Marchand (L)

1930

3400

Redwater (Cn)

1948

700

Rangely (O)

1902

600

East Texas (T)