Land use patterns are strongly interrelated with transportation options. Inexpensive gasoline over the past half-century allowed for dispersed land use patterns, resulting in relatively lower population densities and longer distances between residential and commercial areas. This has made alternatives such as walking and public transit less attractive and viable.

In the long term, one of the responses to increasing costs and difficulties in transportation will be a spatial realignment of people and businesses. The question is whether it will happen quickly enough to minimize disruptions from peak oil. In addition, without public guidance or intervention, some of these realignments may leave vulnerable and marginalized populations worse off.

As automobile travel becomes more expensive, demand for housing closer to jobs, retail stores, services, schools, parks and other frequent destinations will increase, as will demand for housing that is more accessible to transportation options, such as public transit. These needs will likely spur two other changes.

First, there could be increased movement to city centers and reduced demand for suburban and exurban housing. As a result, homes will lose value in some areas and gain value in others, depending on the convenience of shopping, schools, work and other services. Low-income and vulnerable populations will be displaced, with residents likely relocating to “edge” areas with poor access to these services. Low-income households already spend a much higher percentage of income on transportation, and the added transportation costs associated with living farther from city centers will make life increasingly difficult, causing these populations to be further marginalized.  At the same time, the relocation of businesses, housing and services as a result of higher oil prices may create new neighborhood and town centers throughout Portland, including areas that currently have poor access to essential services.

Second, the attempt to move closer to jobs and services will increase pressure to allow mixed-use and high density development, which may conflict with current land use regulations. Densities may increase even without new development, because average household size could grow once again. Demand for and stress on public spaces will also increase.

Not only will people want to be closer to jobs and services, but the location of workplaces will shift as well. Businesses may want to be closer to customers, employees or intermodal transportation. Transportation system constraints are likely to drive changes in location and extent of supply-chain facilities and retail outlets.