Portland has a significant high-technology sector, and energy comprises a relatively small proportion of delivered high-tech product costs, despite using commercial aviation as the primary delivery mode. Although chip production is energy-intensive, electricity still accounts for a small proportion of producers’ overall cost structure. Even as the cost of air freight increases, customers in the high-tech sector likely will be willing to pay more for the chips because chips are a high-value commodity. Peak oil’s greater impact on the high-tech sector will be through the possibility of declining demand for some of its products as peak oil negatively impacts its customers and decreases demand. These negative impacts may be partially offset or even balanced by increasing demand for high-tech components in devices that increase energy efficiency. In general, the high-tech sector is probably less vulnerable than many to increased oil prices and has many opportunities to benefit.

Portland is home to several major transportation equipment manufacturers. Any shift from long-haul trucking and aviation shipping modes to rail and ocean shipping clearly will have significant impacts on these industries. The effect on individual firms is unclear but would likely represent a significant departure from current business plans, and some manufacturers would fare better than others.

Similarly, the Portland region includes several major employers in the highly globalized apparel industry that will likely experience the impact of peak oil in a variety of ways. The first is a decline in retail sales as consumer discretionary spending shifts away from luxury items to essential goods. Second, distribution costs may increase dramatically because these companies rely heavily on trucking for national distribution of their products. Third, because petroleum products are used in the manufacture of many synthetic fibers, current raw materials will become more expensive. Business models are likely to undergo significant change, with uncertain impact on the various design, marketing, financial and other functions that provide employment in the Portland area.

The metals industry in Portland focuses mostly on steel manufacture and the fabrication of special products. Production costs of metal fabrication may not be hit hard, although electricity prices may increase as natural gas prices rise. However, to the extent that consumer demand shifts as a result of higher fuel prices, sales may be impacted depending on the type of products in which these manufacturers’ goods are used.

Much of Oregon’s nursery product is currently shipped long distances. As transportation costs rise, demand for low-value nursery products such as spruce trees likely will decrease. However, high-value products such as hazelnuts can withstand a rise in transportation costs. To the extent that nursery production declines, production and employment likely will shift from growing nursery stock to food crops.

The construction industry will be significantly impacted. Demand for new homes may decline as incomes are stretched to provide food, heat, transportation and clothing. In addition, production, processing, and transportation of construction materials will increase costs. The decline in the housing market will have ripple effects on the mortgage finance industry and real estate.

For many employees in the service sector, such as health care and retail, it will no longer be economical to commute long distances by car to reach low-paying jobs. Unemployment in these sectors could rise.

The public and non-profit sectors may also experience job cuts, as revenues from conventional sources will likely decline. The arts and creative sectors may be especially hard hit, as their products and services may be perceived as non-essential.