Why the East Coast is better prepared than Oregon? In case you didnt see this:
BY PAULA HAY:
Will Fear of Money Destroy
Peak Oil Preparations?
Editor's Note: Today's posting is reprinted with permission from http://AdaptationZine.com. The author, Paula Hay, can be reached via her website, http://www.PaulaHay.com -Matt
The Pacific Northwest —the area of the country stretching along the west coast from approximately the North Bay area of San Francisco up through northern Washington State—has emerged as "ground zero" for Peak Oil preparations. Many communities in the Northwest have gotten local civic leaders involved in preparations, and have founded numerous Peak Oil groups to address local issues of collapse. People in the Northwest are teaching themselves permaculture techniques; organic farming; how to make, use and repair hand tools; how to grow food and medicinal herbs in their backyards, and all manner of things that will be exceedingly useful after collapse.
I lived in Portland, Oregon for a long time. I left there to return to Pennsylvania for university, and have until recently planned on going back. I consider Portland to be my “other hometown” and I was proud of Portlanders’ attention to Peak Oil and their preparations efforts. I joined a couple mailing lists and began networking with the Peak Oil community there in anticipation of my return.
My personal great concern over collapse is the economic hardship that awaits us all, and that is even now peering over the horizon. We will all face economic problems much sooner than we will face blackouts; we will lose our jobs and our homes long before the lights go out.
Addressing these issues is, for me, priority. They also require discussing economics, markets, and money. Each time I attempted to broach the subject on the mailing lists, I was generally ignored, or occasionally met with hostility. I tried to establish a separate mailing list to keep economic issues off the main lists so as not to offend anyone. No one joined.
In time I began to get the picture. The subject of money was taboo among the list participants, so taboo that it was beyond discussion even in the context of a massive planetary die-off.
I began researching other Northwest communities to see who was dealing with money issues, if the folks in Portland would not. I found lots of information about permaculture, organic farming, and the like, but literally nothing about money. (Actually, the Willits Economic Localization’s PDF of its presentation to the Rotary Club does include the word “financial” on its last page. So I guess that makes one thing.)
This discovery scared the hell out of me. “Ground zero” of the preparations movement is actively refusing to address the most immediate problem we face. This approach is sowing the seeds of community violence, and creating a magnet for external violence.
I will not be returning to the Northwest. I believe I am safer here, less than a tank of gas from the whole East Coast megalopolis. Northwest-style preparations are going to fail, spectacularly, anywhere they are implemented.
Peak Oil awareness: enter, stage Left
Peak Oil awareness owes its existence to our political-lefty friends on the west coast. They are the ones who first embraced Mike Ruppert’s post-9/11 message, rebroadcast his lectures on local independent radio, began sharing their battered copies of From the Wilderness with each other. I know this because I was there. I originally learned of Peak Oil in October, 2001, when Ruppert came to town for his first major Peak Oil lecture. (And god bless KBOO for their great work in getting Ruppert’s message out back in the beginning.)
I believe it is because of the Left’s ability to grasp environmental and Earth-related issues that Peak Oil made immediate sense to them, where others have difficulty with the concept. It has been a slow process educating people, but environmental and social-justice activists have been diligent. If Peak Oil is now kind-of on the map, it is because of the grassroots efforts of these folks in bringing the work of people like Mike Ruppert and Richard Heinberg to public attention.
But for all its excellent hard work, the Left has an acute blind spot when it comes to money. The general consensus among the Left seems to be that the collapse of industrial civilization is ultimately a good thing, because it means the collapse of capitalism. The Left views money as a weapon of oppression against the less fortunate, and anything related to money is dismissed out-of-hand as inherently evil. Those who learn to operate money are held in deep suspicion, if not overt contempt.
A cliff with an organic garden at the bottom
I believe that preparation efforts which ignore economic issues will actually put any given community in a worse situation than had it not prepared at all.
The immediate problems we face are entirely economic: loss of jobs, hyperinflation and dollar collapse, loss of local manufacturing capacity, loss of local distribution infrastructure, home foreclosures and apartment evictions. These are the issues for which people need to prepare right now. Learning to grow a backyard organic garden is a distraction from learning what one must do to hang on to one’s house after the next round of layoffs. Prioritizing the use hand tools is a distraction from taking in freelance work to get out of student-loan debt.
Moreover, by ignoring money issues, Northwest-style preparations are laying the foundation for an inversion of the "haves vs. have-nots" equation. Those hit hardest by economic collapse will be those who are now relatively well-off. They will become what James Howard Kunstler calls, “the formerly middle-class.” They will not have known that Peak Oil was imminent because they are not inclined to participate in politically left-leaning activities—like vegan pot-luck Peak Oil movie night—and there is no mention of Peak Oil in the corporate media. They will have been blindsided, and they will be on the streets.
Meanwhile, the "peakniks" will have developed a network of community gardens, small farmers just beyond the city limits, and other physical infrastructure. They will be the new haves. The formerly middle-class will be the new have-nots.
This might not be so unfortunate a situation if some economic infrastructure had been developed to support the physical one. The new have-nots could potentially work to earn community currency notes, or turn metal scraps into useful items to sell, or find some other way to scrape together some money. At least the possibility exists. But with no money system, the have-nots have no way to purchase the peakniks’ goods. They are reduced to either thievery or begging to obtain them. Even if a barter system emerges, the new have-nots will have nothing with which to barter except time and muscle power, which will put them in a feudal relationship to the peakniks.
In this situation, it will be very difficult for these folks not to feel that the left-leaning preparations community is being punitive in withholding goods from those hated capitalists of pre-collapse life.
The establishment of a centralized distribution network would be even worse. There is no possible way people will be able to operate one of those, given the dire economic conditions befalling us, without shaving a little extra off the top for one’s own kids. Even if someone is honest enough to let one’s own child go hungry in order to be fair and equitable, no one will believe it is the case.
If this is not a recipe for civil conflict, I don’t know what is.
And that doesn’t address the issue of external conflict. With a functioning, market-based economy in place, outsiders would come to find work, or to buy and sell what they have—constructive participation that would benefit the community as a whole.
Without a functioning local market, a physical infrastructure of organic farms, neighborhoods of backyard organic gardens, and the means to create and use hand tools, become magnets for the ruthless. If a particular community has what someone needs, but gives him no way of obtaining it other than murder and theft, then that’s what he will do if he is desperate enough.
For all its faults, a market-based economy provides the means for people to obtain what they need from each other peacefully, without resorting to violence. This is one of the reasons why money evolved into existence in the first place. The vast majority of people in the world would sooner work to earn money than steal it, whether they sell what they make themselves or whether they work directly for someone else. Were it not the case, all societies would be in violent chaos all the time.
But, nearly everyone will steal if no other choice exists.
Ignoring economic issues as they relate to collapse preparations sows the seeds of community violence, both from within and from without. A community that sinks its energies into preparing for what comes after collapse, without considering the 15-20 or more years of economic hardship between now and the time when hand tools become necessary, is essentially committing suicide
wow
From what I understand, Paula is saying that without money, "all socities" will fall into violent chaos.
Hmmm,
I believe primitive civilizations were existing and still exist today with very little violence.
Also, the United Snakes of Amerika have been using money since the beginning (while almost perpetually waging foreign and domestic wars) and look where we are now - on the verge of economic collapse!
YAY MONEY!
But ultimately, I agree with Paula, the Northwest is woefully underprepared economically and people should just stay away. Yep. Please, heed the good advice and STAY AWAY unless you want violent chaos.
why?
You say violent chaos like it is a bad thing ;-)
That was hilarious!!
YAY MONEY! LOL!!!
ok
I remember an e-mail or two from her, but I don't recall her ever coming to a meeting a weekly meeting. I never met her, but in general I'm realllllly tired of being barked at because a grassroots group with no budget isn't doing enough or focusing enough on topic X or someones idea is met with any resistance by anyone on a mailing list of several hundred people.
My view is if you want to talk/do something more about a given topic, then announce a meeting/work party and see if anyone is interested. The only requirements/restrictions in PPO is 1) if you want to use the name "Portland Peak Oil" in some official way and 2) If you want to use St. Francis on a Wednesday then you have to get it approved at the Council meeting which is an open meeting.
FYI, PPO has had several meetings on finance and the discussion just boiled down to get out of debt, reduce expenses, plan on significant inflation, and find a career that will be of use in a low energy world. On more of a macro level, localizing the food supply and the economy as much as possible will take care of a bunch of other problems.
Economics and Violence in the Northwest
Hi Jeremy!
Sorry I didn't get back to you right away the last time you emailed me. I was typing a reply one night to one of your posts and got hit with some technical glitch, which pissed me-off, so I just quit and went to bed.
As I've mentioned (vented) before, life sucks out here on the East Coast. Everyone is programed (except for some progressive enclaves North of DC) and totally oblivious - Goerbels would have been proud.
Speaking of that, I just learned that it is actually a criminal offense now in Iraq for the troops to say anything negative about their Commander-in Chief. Can you say NKVD all over again?
As you know, I've been willing at the few meetings I've attended to address money. If we could think like the Big Dogs - Cheney and the rest of his ilk, we can fight fire with fire and turn this entire thing to our own advantage. I'm practicing what I preach. I warned you about these markets in person earlier this year, and I'm currently 100% short the Russell 2000 with 250% leverage. What did Ben Afleck say in Boiler Room? "Look at my Smile. Ear to f---ing ear baby!" (along with "Anyone who ever said that money was the root of all evil, never had any") Even if the corporate world and investing turn you off, think of the damage you can do to the system with $10-15,000 to open a mutual fund account that shorts the major indeces, without having to deal with a broker or individual stocks. As this economy collapses, people will get rich. The Stock Traders Almanac at thier website has already told its readers to 100% short the NASDAQ, S&P and Dow, two months ago. This is the kind of stuff I want to present, and show people how to make this happen. Some market people look down on short sellers as parasites. But even in the natural world, parasites are part of the natural cylce. Besides, going short is as American as apple pie and Adam Smith: Everyone looking aout for their own interests and profiting. The big secret is that only 3% of investors do this.
Another thing that needs to be addressed is the potential for violence. Not necessarily because I think its cool to discuss guns 'n stuff, but because I've met some realy neat, peaceful, mutual co-existence people who are already practicing what they preach. I really like these people, and I'm concerened for them. Unfortunately, the one thing the permaculture types seem to be clueless to is the fact that even in the Northwest, if a group is percieved as defenseless, they will be killed and thier stuff taken (If you want some religion, see that Kevin Costner movie The Postman. the movie itself sucks, but takes place in a post-apoctalyptic Oregon). I know others in the group are aware of specific threats, but here's some things I've noticed locally:
I once drilled with a mentally-touched SGT in the Oregon Army National Guard in Tigard. I don't know how he got to the rank of SGT, since he was too mentally unstable to drive a car. But he did collect assualt rifles. Lots of them. I'm still trying to figure out how he transported all those weapons...
If someone wants more proof, they sould go to the Expo Center during one of the big Rose City Gun Shows (Actually, they should go anyway, as there's a wealth of survival resouces at these). You will see people wheel-out handtrucks loaded to the top with cases of 7.62 military ball ammo, in addition to stockpiles of other goodies.
There are others in the Portland area who collect weapons for the heck of it, and I'm talking enough to equip a plussed-up Special Forces unit. For example, SEVERAL Barrett .50 cal. sniper rifles, etc. I've even heard rumors of 20mm weapons systems people have buried somewhere.
I thank God at times, that I happen to already be using my lifeboat, which is actually a luxury yacht: The U.S. Army. Unfortunately, I can't go into what I do out here at Ft. Meade, MD. I can say that when they put me up, its all shaken, not stirred, between the rental cars, hotels, etc. The only other people I know of in the purely civilian world who get put-up like this are executives. Who knows. Maybe being an officer has something to do with it. It also seems that the military is the only organization left with anything you could call a retirement.
I know, I may sound like the corpse of the old world, but hey, its survival. I got into this business because I want to know when this stuff is going to happen. I'm all about predictive analysis.
See you in October Jeremy,
Jerry
Tug of War
Funny how that game is so aptly titled.
Tug, tug... tug tug tug.
Someone has to fall eventually. I see this argument as two sides of an issue, and the rope certainly isn't moving. This is certainly a point of critical thinking the Task Force should be considering.
cool
It will be good to have you back on the left coast. I'm guessing that a large scale economic crisis will hit before a purely liquid fuels created problem/shortage. Having more folks who can talk about finances will be a nice addition.
cheers,
+ Jeremy
are you *&^%$ kidding me?
I can understand this kind of strange east coast bias from someone who has never really been out here-- but from someone who has lived in Portland? it boggles the mind.
honestly, she didn't provide any argument WHY the east coast is better? i can see some of the new england area where people historically (and still do) have a belief in the common "weal" (weal
meaning good-- hence the "common good"- as in the commonwealth of massachusetts). i wanted to hear constructive reasons on why things will be better on the east coast and i didn't hear any construction of any rational argument-- so i'll have to check out her website to see if she expresses herself any better there. but, in the above essay i didn't see any concrete reasons why there is better than here fo surviving the coming storm.
frankly, in a worst case scenario-- imagine the food supply lines completely broken down. forget the whole east coast mega-opolis-- let's just take new york's eight million people. how are they going to eat? are there any farmer's markets in manhattan? how many community gardens on the upper east side? it's a numbers game-- we simply have more space and less people. that's a pretty big deal.
sure there might be breakdown here of the social order-- but as a midwest transplant-- the more people here keyed into the midset that things might get ugly-- the less ugly it will be.
the only analogy i can use is when you're about get punched. if you know a blow is coming to your midsection-- you can flex your muscles and brace for it. yeah, it might hurt-- but if you get socked in the gut when you're not expecting it-- you can actually be killed.
peak oil is the biggest punch in the gut our rich, self-entitiled society will ever take. will it get ugly-- sure. are there more assets and resources that makes this a better place to live and deal with what's coming-- you bet your ass there is. so there's a slew of bankruptcies-- even with the draconians changes to the bankruptcy laws-- they can't take your house if you continue to try and make payments.
the list for why the northwest (west of the cascades) is an awesome place to be is long-- but i'm on a stream of consciousness rant-- so bear with me.
'
PEAK OIL GEOGRAPHICAL BENEFITS
energy-
nw: hydro/bio-mass (trees)/tidal forces (if OSU can figure something out in time)
east: coal (dirty) / nuclear (really dirty)
jobs-
nw: still a lot of agriculture
east: mostly service oriented jobs
climate-
nw: mild winters
east: first cold snap and you're screwed
food-
nw: record growth in CSAs, famers markets, community gardens, still plenty of ag land-- and suburban green spaces can be reclaimed relatively easily.
east: food comes in cellophane at the grocery store. if you could eat concrete or asphalt, no worries.
transport-
nw: portland is bike and walk friendly-- mass transit in portland is good-- but only by west coast standards. we need a lot more work on this one-- but people understand value of other modes of transport.
east: transit is excellent, cars not needed-- but used anyways.
topography-
nw: excellent for capturing seasonal precipitation. most of portland's water supply is gravity based.
east coast: most water is pumped in through massive machine mechanisms-- not so good if there's prolonged power outages.
and to me the most important...
mentality-
nw: change is coming. it might suck-- but it's coming.
east coast: change? no, i can't spare any change.
anyhow, this is only a partial stream of thought list-- feel free to add to it-- or correct me if you think i'm full of it. isn't the old adage "be the change you seek in the world"? leading by example-- showing people it can be done-- i think is one of the most powerful motivational tools in the world. i look forward to further dialogue on this topic.
namaste,
tj
This East Coast / West Coast thing
Hi Everyone,
For some time now, especially since I've spent over half the year here in Maryland, I've wanted to share the differences I've seen between the people I've observed here, with the people and culture I'm used to on the West Coast.
First off, there's no independant media out here, except for a couple of theaters in DC that do play good documentaries like "Why We Fight". There's also an Air America AM station in DC. DC also hosted a recent Petrocollape Conferece, but I basically stick with the internet.
People out here are so oblivious it is not even funny. Almost all the military and civilian people I work with who owe their livelyhood to the Military Industrial Complex drive these SUV tanks, and you know they're not paid off, adding to our debtor nation.
In contrast, I practice what I preach back in Vancouver, WA. I drive a 1995 Nissan base-model Pickup that I customized with several applications of Line-X, so that I'll still be driving it when I'm in my 90's (if there's oil). During the Spring and Summer, I ride my 200cc Dual-Purpose motorcycle, which gets somewhere around 70 MPG. These vehicles were paid for in cash, or very quickly.
I guess I can understand thier flawed logic: Endless war means endless paycheck. I've developed my own phrase, calling this war in Iraq an Equal Opportunity War, where everyone from bi-lingual minimum-wage dorks, to contractors and military reservists can cash in big. There is so much of an industry now based on this war "which will not end in our lifetimes", it's scary in it's implications. I have also heard rumors very recently of recent university graduates from this side of the country washing dishes in Afghanistan for $60,000 tax-free for a one-year tour. Yeah, get an education, get a good job. Not. I think my 19-year old son is doing better for himself being in Job Corps. A very neat program BTW, which still seems modeled after Roosevelt's 1930's programs.
I'm not trying to differentiate here, but I've noticed that almost all the people of color out here are clearly overweight, if not outright obese. Being a fitness person, I know it's perfectly normal for a person to apppear heavy, if they are physically fit, but I can tell these people are not.
For example, at the hotel I'm currently living at, there were people here for a multi-state African-American church convention. Almost every female in particular was obese. Not fat or overweight, but OBESE. And don't laugh too loud, but these people were practically standing in line at the front lobby of the hotel asking for plungers, because thier toilets were constantly getting clogged. In other words, these people have been programmed to overconsume. Needless to say, I also saw many SUV tanks.
In other words, I heve never seen so much human cunsumerist cattle in my life! I also see them at a giant mall out here, where everything is Big Box stores, where nothing seems independently owned. In the food court of this massive mall, you should see the food on people's trays! The largest line is in front of Taco Bell, probably because of the cheap food. Perfect for low-wage people who are already living on consumer credit, and kept ignorant of how money actually works in this society.
One female Army National Guard Staff Sergeant I work with here on tour who has a very high work ethic and is very continuous-improvement oriented, does not even like many of the other enlisted reservists she works along-side. I've been approached by the Army for new unit being stood-up at Ft. Lewis, WA, and I'm trying to get people like her to follow me to this new unit, telling her, "If you stay here, you're always going to be taking chances with dumb people. Come check out this new unit with me at Ft. Lewis, where the smart people live."
According to what I've seen on the Discovery Channel, this area of the country I'm at is overdue for a Katrina-like Huricane. The human suffering here in that event will make New Orleans look like a Sunday picknic.
YAY EAST COAST!
LOL!!!
Jerry
One thing...
I wouldn't diss service industries. The advantage of a common kitchen (restaurant), food storage facility (grocery store... of which I expect to see a greater distribution of smaller stores in the post-oil future), laundry facility (laundromat/dry cleaner), or common housing/kitchen (hotel) is that items can be purchased in bulk and there is less duplication of appliances. Better to have more people working in a more concentrated workspace. Consider also that the repair industry is also a service-based industry. Nevermind the benefit of the creation of more jobs. Yes, those jobs may not pay well but right now most people do that work less efficiently and for free in their own homes.
Robin Canaday
robincanaday@hotmail.com
ICQ 27717216
eureka!
finally... the missive on why the east coast might be better than the west coast. very interesting arguments-- although she's only talking about folks getting out of the large east coast cities to rural counties in the NE.
http://adaptationzine.com/content/megalopolis
it's an interesting read. although she doesn't really address where the multiple millions of people hunting for resources will go.
-tj
ok
Ok, at least that is somewhat rational, but there is ZERO chance that several million people can go back to living off the land starting tomorrow. With serveral years of work with design food forests and massive habitat restoration then living off the land could be plausible for a number of people.
ok
Absolutely.
Robin Canaday
robincanaday@hotmail.com
ICQ 27717216
I thought this site was about Peak Oil?
Reading some of the comments on this article could make a casual observer think that PPO is associated with the Armegeddonist, End Timer, Rapture Ready crowd. That's not my identity. I was just reading how the higher cost of energy is having a negligible effect on the economy. It's on the energybulletin.net site. My neighbor just bought a Lexus SUV and her son had no problem selling his 12 year old Toyota SUV to buy his mothers older model Lexus. Apparently, the masses still see the current energy pricing as acceptable. And lets not forget that $4-6 a gallon gasoline is the norm just about everywhere but America. Aren't people forgetting that Peak Oil means that half of the known quantities are used up? It doesnt mean we are running on fumes. Sure, I'm concerned about the current rift going on in the middle east and with Israel, but I'd like to believe in the resiliency of the American people and not that we will see a Mad Max like reality played out before our very eyes...If there is anything this administration is protective of, its the economy. The American economy is still the envy of the world even if our reputation raises a few eyebrows.
Doom. Er something.
I think there are many perspectives on what peak oil really means; there ARE people who think there is going to be a sudden crash. I'm of the opinion that it will be more of a slow decline/new economy skills pinch. There COULD be a sudden crash if the government does something stupid like reserving all oil reserves for a war, or some other unforeseen circumstance. Either way, it seems prudent to be proactive about the situation. My greatest hope is that it will be another "Y2K crisis," where sufficient preparation prevents the real crisis from happening altogether. And yes, I think for that we need to consider the whole economic system and its infrastructure/processes and our places in that system more than we need to focus on 100% "lawn garden" food self-sufficiency or getting all of our water supplies from rooftops. But, since I believe in hedging my bets, I have no problem with people working from both angles :). And anyways, I really like eating fresh tomatoes and chives direct from a garden. It's advantageous in its own right.
Robin Canaday
robincanaday@hotmail.com
ICQ 27717216
it is
This site is about peak oil and a "crash" is one possible senario. As preparing for Peak Oil basically includes the scope of just about everything and the US is amazingly unprepared for any type of large scale emergency (see handling of Katrina & Iraq). However, I don't know how identity plays into this, we have a problem coming that will result in any number of senarios and a few of them are rather bad.
However, .... Rapture Ready are you kidding me? Where did that come from? Yes a crash is a senario that we need to acknowledge and yes this particular thread has rather bleak view of the world, but no one mentioned anything about religion or the such.
analagous not an exact...
It's an analagous term Jeremy. Not an exact comparison. It's the doom and gloom of some of the commentary that caused my terminology. Peak oil means reaching that point where half the known reserves have been pumped. It's how people, neighbors, communities and countries respond to that point in time that matters. I suspect that price will be used as a way of rationing in a perfect scenario. Hurricanes, embargos, stockades, etc, will be what causes the crash that some are predicting. And yes, I am aware of how unprepared local, state and federal entities were in response to Katrina. It should have been an eye opener to all the people of our country. I still say people typically pull together in times of adverstity. I have witnessed it personally here in Portland when the downtown area was in threat of being flooded in the late winter of 1996. When the goal is to influence people to work together, it's always best to focus on the positive.
Land Reform
I grew up in northern rural New England, lived in Michigan for 8 years, and have been in Portland for the past 20. This dialogue is interesting and I humbly submit the following comments.
First, no matter where you go, there you are. In the post-peak years ahead, no place will be immune to upheaval, turmoil, and suffering. I think it unwise to loudly bang our drum and trumpet the comparative advantages of the PNW. Why invite mass migration to this region? De we want tens of millions of new residents? The Great Depression gave us an example of a mass exodus from the dustbowl to California. Do we want the same influx of energy/environmental refugees who think it’s better here? After all, it’s crowded here, it rains all the time, the Pacific Ocean is too cold for swimming, volcanoes threaten major cities, and a huge earthquake will strike any day and destroy everything. The densely populated northeast exceeds that region’s natural carrying capacity, especially because of the short growing season and harsh winter climate. Many will leave, and it’s just a matter of where and how far they’ll travel. In fact, all states with cold winter climates will experience a loss of population as people flee to warmer climes in the post-peak years.
Second, instead of talking about how much better the PNW is, why not simply focus on the struggles we face here, and wish the best for people elsewhere. We’re no better than others, and where people choose to stick it out is their own business.
Third, cultural change will be difficult, even here on the left coast. We’re actually no different from middle America. In fact, many consumer surveys are done in the PNW because we ARE middle America. Yes, even the left coast has big boxes and supersized homes, cars and dinner menus, so let’s not become smug. One can immediately grasp the difficulty we face of achieving the cultural change necessary for our collective survival by taking a spin on the freeway. Despite today’s $3/gal fuel, the average speed far exceeds the posted speed limit. Gas guzzling SUV’s are rapidly roaring their way to extinction. You’ll also be able to observe that motorists continue to accelerate rapidly, seemingly oblivious to the consequences on their fuel usage. Leadership in this country is unlikely to happen, given the adversarial political process of our government. Does our society have the political will to, for example, mandate 55 mph speed limits or 35 mpg mileage (China’s standard)? Our society is at great risk of becoming another chapter in history books like Jared Diamond’s about societal collapse. The signs are everywhere. For example, state transportation planners still see a need for more freeways, bigger freeways, and more bridges (I-5). Yet, the number of automobiles and trucking is likely to decline, and the future cost of asphalt will likely outpace tax revenues.
Finally, each region will be on its own, barely linked to other regions by a crumbling rail system and interstate highway system. Localization won’t be a choice. It’ll be forced upon us, and the sooner we prepare, the better the chances of success, and one measure of success will be whether or not we can avoid a famine. We’re already headed in that direction, as the world is rapidly approaching a global food shortage. Read “Paddy’s Lament” for a detailed account of what widespread famine was like 160 years ago in Ireland. Death by starvation is a horrible way to die. The abandoned villages and mass graves throughout Ireland today serve as stark reminders of that tragedy. The real tragedy was that Ireland was a net exporter of an abundance of food during the famine years. But most of the land was held by English lords, more money could be made by exporting the food, and the starving Irish tenants had neither money nor land rights for the products of the land. For us in the PNW during the post-peak age, localization must include an emphasis on local ownership. We need to secure local rights to our region’s agricultural output to prevent it from being exported by transnational corporations. If and when land prices collapse, the region must be prepared to buy it, privately or publicly. After the region’s food needs are met, surplus foods would be allowed for export, to be traded for other necessities. (aside: what resources does the PNW have for trade with other regions? Our fish and timber are depleted, so what’s left?) Political pressure should be put on our local governments to condemn agricultural land, i.e., to take it by right of eminent domain on the grounds that the land is needed for the public good. If land can be condemned for highways to transport people, it certainly can be condemned for feeding them. The Israeli Kibbutz is one example of a self-sustaining agricultural community. There may be other models of local agricultural economies capable of feeding their own people. We must think outside the big box. If the global economy collapses, millions of people will be without jobs and the ability to buy basic necessities. The economic restructuring will of necessity be local, and it must assure that everybody can eat or it won’t succeed. To each according to their need; from each according to their ability. Nobody has an ability to do anything when starving. Let’s make sure that economic collapse doesn’t result in societal collapse. Think and prepare now.
the end of the world as we know it and i feel fine
This was an interesting discussion and I enjoyed it. I agree that the whole world will be shaken with the collapse of the oil economy and the u.s. will be one of the hardest hit. Each area will have its own issues. Each social system will see gradual to increasing hardships. Foreclosures will happen more and more, people will have to live without economy more and more, and maybe insurance companies will start to collapse (FEMA was just financially reorganized into EMA). Each system will start to fray at the edges. It is how the complete system handles the fraying that will define the post-oil culture. Here in the NW we have more land. This is a blessing and a curse. We will have more access to localized food (this is already seen in farmer's markets and stores like New Season's, Limbo(Trader Joes) and the strong coops (People's, etc) but we are totally dependent on the car for long-distance travel (even between cities). I am already seeing an increase in real goods (food, tools, even solar panels, etc.). As we have 'preached' many times, the solutions will develop around localization (with an eye on survival (food, shelter, transportation)) and community (our ability to care for others less fortunate). I don't think this is an east coast/west coast thing but a human thing and I think it is time the human race wakes up to its own destiny and evolution. The main complaint I have about religions are that they are exclusionary (my team is better than your team). Many of our groups fall into the same camp (we are better because we are smarter, faster, more liberal, ...). I believe this exlusionary vision is something we have to evolve out of or we may destroy ourselves in the process. I would like us to start to solve all human issues. I believe they are very simple; like a secure place to sleep at night, enough food to eat and be nourished, and ways to learn and be happy. These are possible within any economy (or even w/out one) but this is what we must focus on. Every system will have its good and bad and areas of improvement. This must be our direction (to improve what is before us) in a compassionate and loving way. The flip side of this is side taking and violent chaos. THe peak oil thing is just an issue that is before us. The solutions to it are our own unique destiny as individuals and as social action groups. Take on your own part of it and try to be loving and happy in the process.
peace out 2 all,
--mike
Money is FIRE!
Fire can burn your house down... it can also roast a lovely ear of corn. Money, like fire, can be a useful or destructive force, and I am so glad Paula brings it up- it will be THE issue as Peak Oil unfolds its inflationary wings. (I don't quite undestand the Eats coast/ West coast thing, though... unless you're talking about rappers.)
Money represents a claim by the holder on something of value. When money is part of a system of unimpeded growth and concentration of wealth, few people aggregate large claims on any item up for sale (commodities- oil, food, timber, etc- and peculiar to capitalism, human labor, land and water). If there is a finite source of commodities, and an infinitely growing source of money that represents a claim on such commodities, only great inequity, rampant bouts of inflation and deflation and economic instability can result. The results are devastating with or without a crisis such as Peak Oil, and the history of capitalism is full of examples such as Dutch tulip mania and the Great Depression.
The point I try to make, and some of you have tired of it I'm sure, is that A MARKET ECONOMY IS NOT EQUIVALENT TO CAPITALISM. Markets are a necessary part of any society- but capitalism is a system of institutions that has been around for only a few centuries, since the early joint stock companies like the Dutch East India Company and early banks like the Royal Exchange in London. It is a peculiar system of ownership which allows people to make money by owning something, but not necessarily doing any work.
Here's an example- I have a friend who repairs bikes and tunes pianos for a living. He sells his services for money. He assumed he was a capitalist. But people have been selling such services since the days of ancient Sumeria, and capitalism only arose in past few centuries. He is NOT a capitalist- he is doing what people have always done- participate in a MARKET. Now, if he were to hire a bunch of people for a small wage to do the work, taking in more money than he pays the workers as profit and NOT doing any more work with his own hands, then- poof!- he's a capitalist. As his bike-repair and piano-tuning business takes off, then maybe he can go public and sell shares and OTHER people can sit on their butts and rake in the money earned by the people actually tuning the pianos and repairing the bikes. Then the logic and incentives of capitalism really begin to unfold- if he pays his workers less, he makes more money! If he scrimps on axle grease, he makes more money! If he shuts out his competitors, he makes more money! If he dumps the grease in the stream instead of paying for proper disposal, well, you get my drift about the mechanisms of capitalism...
MARKETS, however, have been around since history began, in ancient Rome, Babylon, Meso-America and they exist today. They are NOT synonymous with capitalism as we have been taught (pledge of allegiance style) here in America. Markets indeed are healthier when the odd elements of commodification (of human labor and the land) and ownership (separate from doing any work) peculiar to capitalism are not present.
People get very defensive when we bring this subject up, you'd think we burned a flag. But oddly, people dream of living in small towns of butchers, bakers and candle-stick makers- a decidedly non-capitalist dream.
Economy and power...
No, actually, I'd have to say that this is the first time I've heard anyone say that a market economy isn't equivalent to capitalism. The way you describe it, it sounds more like it's descended from feudalism... Yeah, every time I hear someone say "free market" they almost always say "free market capitalism." Learn something new every day :).
However, I think that much of the time that some entrepreneur goes and "sits on their butt" they are still selling the fruits of their labor; they are selling an information system or set of knowledge regarding the marketing and production of a product they had worked their butt off developing. It takes a great deal of time and motivation starting a new business; I have no problem with the idea that their rewards eventually manifest, even if they have passed the work on to someone else at that point.
I dunno, I have this vision of a form of capitalism that distributes power rather than concentrating it. I'd also like to see the same thing in government. I don't think that either has been structured to that end.
Robin Canaday
robincanaday@hotmail.com
ICQ 27717216