-1956 Hubbert peak oil concept
King Hubbert (geophysicist with Shell and USGS) introduced in 1956 and forecasted in particular that
US crude oil could peak in 1970 (or in 1965). He is considered today as being right. Let’s study his
concept and his forecasts.
-Strengths
-natural: what is born will die
-based on past production, past discovery and a geological assessment of the ultimate
-uses one or two rounded ultimate estimates, recognizing uncertainty
-production mimics discovery with a time lag
-no equation, annual production drawn by hand with abacus and the area below the complete curve
represents the Ultimate (counting the squares), the curve is not always symmetrical (coal) and in this
case the peak is not the midpoint of depletion
-Weaknesses
-ignores backdating and mean values
-does not distinguish proven values and expected values as it deals only with ultimate(s), so it cannot
compare discovery and production
-relies on outside ultimate estimates, creaming curves were not yet invented
-only one peak, when many countries exhibit “bumpy plateau” or two peaks (UK, France)
-ignores demand constraint (politics, economy)
Hubbert was right on one of his two forecasts, as the US crude oil peaked in 1970
Figure 1: 1956 Hubbert’s forecast for US crude oil called figure 21: Ultimate US crude oil production
based on assumed initial reserves at 150 and 200 Gb