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Portland - Fix it or Flee it?
Submitted by unplanner on March 6, 2006 - 1:39pm
I am a coastal Or resident located a few hours away. I have a question for all of you metro residents.
Right now it seems to me that the people most likely to "get it" live in the metro region (which may or may not be sustainable over the long term) while those in small towns and rural areas are in eminently survivable locations, but without a clue. With that in mind, do you plan on fleeing Portland at or before TSHTF or are you going to try and stick it out in the metro area?
Or do some of you have a dual pronged approach of maximizinging your urban time with a rural back up?
If you are leaving, is your current housing situation driving you or fear of the larger community.
Gut check time. Do you get that feeling deep down in you that Portland is still not going to fare well either?
we're #1.... oh god ;-)
I have to admit that my mood about the future can change on a daily basis depending on what Energy Bulletin is reporting. Assuming someone doesn't find the magical pixie dust to make everything better and there isn't a hard crash then Portland is a good place to be. If there is a hard crash then it really doesn't matter where you live as extremely few people have enough skills to truely make it on their own for a long period of time. I'm still mildly terrified by people saying Portland is leading the nation for preparing for Peak Oil and I think the entire desert SW is not well positioned and it appears that the SE is also drying out.
Portland is better positioned then most cities as we have already done a lot of work that will come in very handy in a low energy world. One of my focus areas is growing food and the fact Portland currently has a climate that allows for winter gardening is a big plus and by extension warm enough to for humans to live through the winter. Also the summers currently get enough rain to only require irrigation for 10-12 weeks is also a big plus.
I'll close with we don't know what is going to happen and the best course of action seems to be to figure out how to powerdown which will also likely result in a better quality of life regardless of what happens next.
'tis true
...just yesterday i was in Carlton (i took the max 'til the end of the line and rode a bike the rest of the way - so it's not "far") ...it's amazing that such a progressive city as Portland does not rub off on the towns around it ...what i saw is "monster" trucks and "pray for peace" signs... what i heard, in response to my Peak Oil probing, is: "they are suppresing technology, we should be driving space ships by now".
So, thank you for posting... and allow me to extend your question further: America - fix it or flee it?
There's no escape
I find myself pondering this question all the time as I think about my future and my children’s future. My main concern is famine. Peak fuel (oil and gas) will result in food shortages as farmers find they cannot afford to run their tractors and fertilize their fields. Heinberg and others have pointed out that without fossil fuels, the carrying capacity of the earth is 1 billion, and probably less after factoring in pollution, environmental ruin, and climate change. Localization will be the key to our survival. Can the Willamette Valley feed 3 million people? How much farm land will be lost to Measure 37? Where can a family go to escape the large numbers of unemployed, homeless and desperately hungry people in metro area? Heinberg wisely cautions that individualism (family farm) won’t succeed. Nor will survivalism, which amounts to living in perpetual defense, isolated from the larger community. Intentional communities that offer something to the larger community have the best chance of success. Heinberg cites the Amish, as an example. So, how does one go about starting an intentional community? My best guess is to start a discussion group at your local parish, buy some farmland in the Valley and get going. If you start now, you might gain enough skills to be self-sufficient in 10 years. The clock is ticking.
In his post, “unplanner” states that “those in small towns and rural areas are in eminently survivable locations.” I would have agreed with that a year ago, but now it looks like those areas will be much harder hit. High transportation costs will make those communities unaffordable. Their local economies will crash and people will be forced to move out, leaving behind ghost towns. For example, look at what’s happening in Alaska at http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/ap_alaska/story/7499663p-7410660c.html .
No matter where you go, there will be unimaginable hardships in the years and decades ahead. People who remain in the metro area will probably survive, if the valley can grow enough food. The metro area’s advantage over rural areas is its access to rail and shipping, the future primary modes for transporting goods in and out of the area. Portland also has a good reliable water supply, but it’s becoming unaffordable. If I stay in Portland, I will invest in a rainwater catchment system. I fortunately live on an oversized lot within the city, which allows me to grow a garden and have a few chickens, but I expect that thieves will make off with my crops during the dire times ahead. I plan to invest in weatherization, solar hot water, and solar electricity for my home. For home heating, fossil fuels and wood will become unavailable or unaffordable. Now’s the time to install a ground-source heat pump. The region is blessed with hydropower, so electricity will be available for residential use. More hydropower will be available for homes as the industrial and commercial economy collapses and electrical use plummets. The power lines serving urban areas will likely continue to be maintained. How will people earn an income? People must develop new skills and trades and market their products and services to the large number of people surrounding them. Weavers, cobblers, tinkers, tailors, and candlestick makers. Incomes will be meager, but hopefully sufficient, supplemented by bartered exchanges. Let’s just hope it doesn’t get as bad as it is today for India’s 300 million poor (see http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2006/03/05/INGGAHCS7C20.DTL). In the end, there is no escape, so it’s best to learn how to make do with what little there is within a community (urban or rural).
Enormous instability and insecurity lies ahead. As driving becomes unaffordable and as jobs disappear, the suburban and rural housing markets will crash. Suburbanites who today carry expensive 30-yr mortgages and commute to good jobs will lose their homes to foreclosures, and the banks will be unable to resell the homes, which will lie empty and ransacked for copper wiring, brass fixtures, and appliances. Our financial system will collapse, and our dollars become worthless. Our economy will probably be on a wartime footing because of global resource wars. The military will be where most jobs are.
Our population (and the world’s) will be ravaged by war, starvation, and plagues. Slowly, out of the smoldering ruin, an agrarian economy will take hold. Suburban strip malls, housing and highways will be torn down to make way for food production. Say goodbye to Beaverton, Tigard and Tualatin.
This future scenario lies well within the normal historical course of human events. Read the following (all available for free at our metro library):
1. Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World, by Richard Heinberg
2. The Party's Over; Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, by Richard Heinberg
3. The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century, by James Kunstler
4. Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy
5. The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe, by Jeremy Leggett
6. The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel, by Stephen Leeb
7. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, by Jared Diamond
8. Beyond Oil, by Kenneth Deffeyes
9. The Winds of Change: Climate, Weather, and the Destruction of Civilizations, by Eugene Linden.
10. A Green History of the World, by Clive Ponty
We are totally unprepared for the coming collapse. This information has always been available, but people weren’t being told because it wouldn’t be good for the status quo economy. The corporations, aided by politicians and government, aim to milk this fossil fuel economy for all its worth, so don’t look to them for leadership. Modern society is too busy squandering time watching TV entertainment and shopping. Instead of a smooth transition, which was possible only if we began 30 years ago, we’re heading for abrupt economic (and climate) change. When equilibrium is finally reached in the post-carbon world about 80 years from now, the world’s population will be about 1 billion (it’s nearly 7 billion now). Will your children and grandchildren be among them? What horror, misery and suffering await us and our loved ones? Will the earth even be inhabitable? Perhaps small, scattered pockets of humans will survive, ready to begin yet another long cycle since homo sapiens first arrived 500,000 years ago. During the coming period of punctuated equilibrium, perhaps homo sapiens will make another great evolutionary leap forward and avert a repetition of the sordid history of humans. Stay tuned for the continuing saga of Survivor. Yes, the world’s humblest species, the insects, shall indeed inherit the world.
There's no escape
Maybe these things will happen...
Then again, the stress of the coming years may be exactly what humanity needs to break out of cycles of oppression and violence. I suppose I choose to be optimistic, cause pessimism is depressing :P.
I am confident that nature will survive anything our species does. Things were (environmentally) alot worse back when the earth was being born. Distress brings mutation; whatever survives will be stronger for it. The question is; are WE smart enough to survive?
Robin Canaday
robincanaday@hotmail.com
ICQ 27717216
No Escape Continued
Yes, I have to agree with these comments. It is becoming increasingly clear to me that rural locations will be the first to be hit hardest. Jobs are scarce in rural locations to begin with and as the new recession due to energy scarcity arrives, rural unemployment will go up dramatically. Regular folks won't be able to pay for the mortgage, let alone the costs of driving 20 miles to the nearest Safeway and back. Houses will foreclose and people will flock to move in with relatives and friends to share the costs as much as possible. Business will dry up and even the wealthy landowner won't be able to find the supplies he needs from Home Depot and Fred Meyer.
Urban locations won't have it any easier but will more viable in the short term. Unemployment and financial hardship will lead to increased crime, especially burglary, mugging, car and bike jacking, wood, gas and food theft. Those who are in more protected neighborhoods will do better.
With the loss of jobs and escalating costs, those without work will lose their housing and need to move in with friends and afmily. This is one area where I am more optimistic as I believe a lot of POrtlanders would be willing to share space more readily as a way of helping their friends and reducing expenses. Home prices will collapse as people will not be able to afford to keep a mortgage without a ready supply of jobs.
Many corporate large scale businesses will fail because of intense inflationary pressures and the costs in terms of fossil fuels of transporting goods internationally. A severe decrease in state money from income taxes will crimp social services, safety, schools systems and infrastructure. State jobs will be purged dramatically in the years to come.
A new working class will develop, especially in urban settings of people who will trade their services for other services and/ or goods. Instead of a living wage, people will barter teaching kids or plumbing for a few chickens and eggs, or several days labor tearing down a house, etc.
My fundamental fear for Urban Oregon is food scarcity issues. I have little faith that the federal government will be able to adequately distribute food as this immense crisis unfolds. More than likely, we will have to depend increasingly on our own local production for feeding the residents here. This could lead to intense and violent problems if we don't adequately prepare for this. The from lack of food will come from those who are willing to horde or use threat of force to control supplies of food (Think of parts of Africa).
I believe this is the single most important issue that Portland peak Oil should be focussed on in terms of preparation. All other issues matter greatly but we can survive heat shortages, job shortages, financial shortages, etc. We cannot survive an intense and prolonged food shortage.
I agree with all of you
I agree we are heading towards a massive calamity, and I also agree we can still do many things about it here in Oregon damnit!
We're still living and breathing, so let's get done what needs to be done, which is first and foremost not just awareness, but AGREEMENT and ACTION.
Step 1: Define what we want Portland to BELIEVE
Step 2: Define what we want Portlanders to DO
Until they go through step one, we can't begin step two, unless you want a patchwork of disorganized neighbors throughout the city
This is why the resolution is a first step, not only for getting the city on board, but so we can start with the ones that will make it happen: Businesses.
Sorry folks, unless we can create a financial incentive for people and businesses to care about themselves through complete community cooperation, are asking them to go from 100 MPH to near zero, which is essentially asking them to crash themselves rather than having it done for them by greater forces.
This isn't asking our entire city to quit smoking or even a heroin addiction, this is asking them to dismiss every embodiment of the future they have been sold. That's a HUGE feat to expect cooperation or even acknowledgement of for the masses.
I feel the awareness group needs to focus with surgical precision and "Market" peak oil through guerrilla tactics that force the Main Stream Media to cover it as headline news, not a story buried at 10PM on a Saturday night newscast (though I am thankful for any and all coverage).
Tonight I'll be leading the "Neighborhood" breakout session and discussing intense local efforts on a neighborhood scale.
New Eyes Required
People who can only see the current way of life will flee to wherever they think they have the best hope of continuing that way of life. I can see the logic of wanting to move to the city where you think you have more hope to get something given to you if you stick your hand out. Over time though more and more people will decide to leave the city for the country when they see a new vision with new eyes. That vision is not to get a pickup truck so they can drive 40 miles back and forth each day to work at the local sawmill -- that is what the old eyes saw as life in the country.
The new vision, which definitely requires new eyes to see, is that the country is a place to homestead. Yep, we are going to have to do it all over again. Those people in the city that do get fed, where is their food going to come from? For the most part urban and suburban gardens are only going to supplement and augment people's diets. The majority of meat, milk, and carbohydrate staple foods that will keep people adequately fed needs to be coming from agriculture that is farther out on more open spaces. There is no way Portland can feed itself from its backyards, rooftops, community gardens, whatever, sorry. Rural agriculture is going to require many more people to do physical work than are currently operating the diesel powered equipment of today. Over time more and more people are going to see better prospects stuck on a farm working hard and eating well than destitute and hungry in the city.
Personally I can visualize a future where 60-70% of the people are living upon the ground that feeds them. The rest are in the towns and cities providing services and trading the goods from one location to another, making and selling common manufactured goods. All together this could become in the best case a wholesome, meaningful, sustainable, and happy way of life.
What doesn't look so happy is how we get from here to there. Anyone who flees the country side with hopes for a better life in the city during the crisis has only old eyes. People currently living in the country in western Oregon and going hungry (statistics say there are a lot of them) have only old eyes since they could be growing lots of food for themselves now.
New eyes can develop on people living anywhere. What new eyes see is that Oregon is a rich land that will grow everything one needs for abundant and healthy living. New eyes see that they can grow much of their food by themselves, for themselves. New eyes see that they can specialize in some higher value products and sell or trade them for things they cannot produce for themselves.
People with only old eyes will know how to run, beg, steal, suffer and starve. People with new eyes will understand that life now requires something different from them. They will join with others who can see with new eyes too. They will homestead in family and community groups. They will work hard, eat well, and sleep very soundly as they refresh their new eyes for the next days work.
If you are approaching the coming changes with despair, then you need to add some new eyes. Life will be demanding new things from you and you need to be able to see that.
New Eyes continued
Hey Jeff, I agree with almost all of what you said. We do need to have New Eyes, but the reality on the ground needs to change before those new eyes can materialize what they visualize. Right now, good arable land is expensive to buy out in the countryside. People still need to pay their mortgage and pay their bills. How do they do that? By having a job.
People who live rurally still need a paycheck to get by and those precious jobs will dry up in the years to come. These folks who work road construction, forestry, state jobs, industry, Big Ag and at the corner tavern may lose their jobs quickly and not be able to pay for their home and a half acre. Many of these folks will lose their homes and have to double and triple up with friends and family members. Only when land gets cheap enough will people be able to buy it and farm it without having to worry about paying that mortgage.
At this point we're still at peak production of oil. We have to wait until the painful slippery slope side before land becomes cheap enough to farm without having monstrous mortgage bills to worry about in a countryside lacking paying jobs.
If you know where you are headed...
...you can begin to plot a course. Getting from here to there is not going to be easy. One needs to have new eyes to see both the destination and the path that must be journeyed. The old eyes have a tendency to freeze us in our tracks because all that the old eyes can see are the dead ends of our current path and the traps we feel we are caught in. The new eyes will learn how to spring those traps, take those steps. First there are the skills. Start gardening now, learn how to put the food up and use it through the year. If you are one of the ones that stays in the city, you will be wanting to do this in any case. If you become one of the ones that moves out, you will have more than a basic clue about what you will need to be doing when you get there. As was mentioned to me recently, "rugged individualists" are going to have a tough go where ever they are, no matter how many resources they have. I think this is true. We need to act collectively with both our families and our communities of friends.
The most important traps we need new eyes to see clearly are fear, inaction, and the ruts of how we currently exist. Our old eyes tell us we can never escape these ruts. If we add new eyes, a new way will begin to appear for each of us. Time is of the essence though, we need to see our destinations and begin our journeys now. The longer we wait to start, the more difficult it will become, the greater the risk that we will be left behind.
Dual plan for transition from urban to rural
The dual plan is for transition from urban to rural, which for most folks will work provided the "rural" components are self-sufficient and sustainable (i.e., well managed) Here are some ideas:
Create a virtual community using a low cost Internet mesh system as the carrier layer and a model of The World Cafe as the social/visioning level.
Create and/or support local charter schools which are community based, 501.c.3's.
Create one or more intentional communitites which are self-sufficient, sustainable and practice economic and social justice (not just preach), permaculture and right living.
Create aa "Community Schooling" progam as the top layer and invite all members of the community to participate. This program starts as a Wikiweb and migrates to Second Life.
If anyone is interested, I have papers on each of the above. Just send me an email: jimmiller5417-at-yahoo.com.
Jim Miller
Peak Oil/food/life Crisis solutions
James E. Miller states:
The problem is not one of "escape" from the greater evil to the lesser evil, but one of "transition". Change is the common theme, yet most folks are very reluctant to change. The early adopters will make the change successfully, and the later adopters will be lost in the shuffle. Here's how the transition will likely take place:
So, what are we waiting for?
Jim Miller
Jimmiller5417@yahoo.com
Fix it.
You ask a very good question. The answer, to me, is to stick it out. My gut check agrees with most of the other comments.
Knowing my history, I do know that 40% of the vegetables and fruit that was produced during WWII were the victory gardens in every parking strip and spare scrappy piece of land.
I have begun to empower myself and my community-- or I know that we're all screwed. I took the Master Gardener classes and learned a lot about horticulture. I will continue to learn as I replace my landscaping at my house with edibles and learn more about how to preserve and prepare them.
I have joined a CSA farm to support local agriculture so I know they'll be there when we need them. It costs more-- but it's an investment in all our futures.
I'm now working with a non-profit called "Growing Gardens". They work to teach people who are currently on food stamps-- how to grow their own food. They are mentored for three years with raised beds or container gardens at their house. The poor are the ones most likely to riot and steal when they're hungry-- teaching them how to fend for themselves truly is our only option.
I'm also talking to my friends (gently) about Peak Oil and bringing it up whenever reasonably possible. If people understand the changes, they're better to adapt to the coming difficulties.
Portland is a great town- and far above many others-- but it is by no means sheltered from an oil shock of immense proportions. Portland's metro is about 1 million people-- that's roughly the size of London and Paris before the beginning of the oil age. Portland's inland location is ideal for both climate induced sea level rise. Our winters are mild enough to continue to grow food, our city compact enough to facilitate riding bicycles/scooters or using mass transit or car co-ops like ZipCar. (I have recently gotten rid of my car and the associated payments).
I guess my question is: if the other option to fixing Portland is to flee it-- where will we flee to? If Portland can't survive, I don't see which cities would be able to. Climate, infrastructure, (limited) awareness-- we have it going on here. We have many blessings. My greatest hope is that we can use them here. I am trying in my own life to better this area-- I hope you all are too!
Best wishes,
Tim
OregonJayhawk